The 2025 Melbourne Cup features a competitive field of stayers, blending local talent with high-class international imports.
Among the main hopes are Half Yours, a local favourite with a perfect draw and proven staying ability, and Presage Nocturne, a classy Irish import capable of handling deep ground. Vauban and Al Riffa bring European stamina and tactical versatility, while Valiant King and Buckaroo are Chris Waller-trained runners expected to finish strongly.
Outside chances such as Chevalier Rose, Meydaan, and Absurde offer each-way appeal and could disrupt the placings if the race unfolds honestly. This guide provides an overview of each runner’s barrier, jockey, trainer, and odds, giving a clear snapshot of the likely contenders and their realistic chances.
All odds via PlayUp, as at Nov 3, 11am.
2025 Melbourne Cup form guide
- Al Riffa – Mark Zahra / Joseph O’Brien – Barrier 19. Win $8.50, place $2.90. A proper European stayer who carries the big weight like a businessman carrying a briefcase. All class but a tough draw. Has the form to be competitive if he can get cover and the sting out of the run; wide gate and 59kg make it one for the bold. Realistic chance: place if the pattern goes his way; win is workmanlike but not impossible.
2. Buckaroo – Craig Williams / Chris Waller – Barrier 12. Win $9, place $3. Waller’s globetrotter with a grinding style. Barrier 12 is comfy and Williams knows how to navigate the slog. Strong spring form suggests he’ll sit handy and pounce late; stamina proven. Realistic chance: each-way threat; plausible top-4.
3. Arapaho – Rachel King / Bjorn Baker – Barrier 15. Win $41, place $9. Hard-knocker from the east coast; tends to do his best work mid-race and will relish a genuine tempo. Barrier 15 won’t help but the horse has the staying DNA. Realistic chance: boils down to tempo; rough chance for a placing.
4. Vauban – Blake Shinn / Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Barrier 2. Win $26, place $7. Perfect draw for a horse that can find the rail and settle. Vauban loves to get on the bridle and be left alone. If he gets the dream run from the inside he’s a major player. Realistic chance: major chance; top-3 material.
5. Chevalier Rose – Damian Lane / Hisashi Shimizu – Barrier 5. Win $34, place $9. Japanese quality with a tidy turn of foot; draws well and should avoid the early traffic carnage. Modern Japanese stayers travel well and can be underrated at Flemington. Realistic chance: sleeper; strong each-way chance; a win isn’t out of the question.
6. Presage Nocturne – Stephane Pasquier / Alessandro Botti – Barrier 9. Win $8.50, place $2.90. Very classy Irish stayer who handles deep ground and has a staying CV to match. Barrier 9 gives options; Pasquier’s experience in Melbourne is a plus. Realistic chance: leading contender; very competitive for the win.
7. Middle Earth – Ethan Brown / Ciaron Maher – Barrier 13. Win $41, place $9. Maher’s galloper has the upside and is lightly raced over trips like this; barrier 13 is workable. Will need a patient ride and a reasonable tempo to set him up. Realistic chance: each-way with a bold show on his day.
8. Meydaan – James McDonald / Simon & Ed Crisford – Barrier 22. Win $20, place $6. High-class import but a sticky draw. Wide barriers at Flemington add travel and ground loss. If Meydaan can find a way into the race late he’s very dangerous. Realistic chance: dynamic but draw makes a win harder; place chance if he overcomes it.
9. Absurde – Kerrin McEvoy / Willie Mullins – Barrier 4. Win $19, place $5.50. Willie Mullins brings a genuine stayer who seems to love Flemington-type conditions; barrier 4 is a little gem. If he settles midfield and finds cover, he’ll be charging late. Realistic chance: serious place chance; win not out of the equation.
10. Flatten The Curve – Thore Hammer Hansen / Henk Grewe – Barrier 17. Win $20, place $5.50. European raider with obvious stamina; barrier 17 is a test but not a dealbreaker for stayers. Expect a patient ride and a powerful late run if the tempo is honest. Realistic chance: each-way hope; can upset if the race pans out.
11. Land Legend – Joao Moreira / Chris Waller – Barrier 16. Win $61, place $12. Waller’s team again; Land Legend has gears but needs luck in running. Barrier 16 is awkward; Moreira’s artistry will be needed to find a winning path. Realistic chance: value in exotic bets; a bold showing would be a plus.
12. Smokin’ Romans – Ben Melham / Ciaron Maher – Barrier 11. Win $61, place $12. A local horse who relishes a testing two-mile assignment; barrier 11 gives a midfield berth. Maher rides plenty of Cup days and knows how to place his stayers. Realistic chance: solid outsider for the placings.
13. Changingoftheguard – Tim Clark / Kris Lees – Barrier 24. Win $61, place $12. Barrier 24 is the bane of many a Cup fancy. It can work, but requires a smart ride and a mercy-dash into the race. The horse has enough staying credentials to be dangerous if the track favours backmarkers. Realistic chance: long odds; could steal a place late.
14. Half Yours – Jamie Melham / Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Barrier 8. Win $7, place $2.50. Local hope with good form and a dream draw. Caulfield Cup winner and the headline local favourite; barrier 8 for a proven stayer looks ideal. Realistic chance: clear top chance; obvious win hope.
15. More Felons – Tommy Berry / Chris Waller – Barrier 23. Win $34, place $9. A tricky barrier and a long trip for More Felons, but Waller often gets his horses into the right spots. Needs a patient trip and some luck. Realistic chance: each-way dream if the tempo and track suit late runners.
16. Onesmoothoperator – Harry Coffey / Brian Ellison – Barrier 6. Win $31, place $7.50. Nice gate and a jockey who times runs well; a sturdily bred stayer with a finishing punch. If midfield cover exists, he can produce a late burn. Realistic chance: strong each-way chance; minor upset potential.
17. Furthur – Michael Dee / Andrew Balding – Barrier 7. Win $31, place $7.50. Fits the profile of a modern import that keeps coming; barrier 7 is well positioned. Needs a slick tempo to exploit his turn of foot. Realistic chance: sleeper; could place with a bit of luck.
18. Parchment Party – John Velazquez / William Mott – Barrier 3. Win $61, place $12. An American raider with class and speed; barrier 3 gives options to slot closer up. Will need to prove staying credentials under Melbourne conditions, but talent is obvious. Realistic chance: each-way player; look for a strong finish.
19. Athabascan – Declan Bates / John O’Shea & Tom Charlton – Barrier 1. Win $81, place $18. Barrier 1 at Flemington can be a gift if the pace is genuine. Athabascan can gain an inside tow and be in the right spot. Weight and class suggest he’s a hold-up type worth monitoring. Realistic chance: each-way; in the mix for a surprise.
20. Goodie Two Shoes – Wayne Lordan / Joseph O’Brien – Barrier 20. Win $34, place $8. Nice European pedigree but the wide gate at 20 will test the tactical nous of the rider. Will need a patient ride and a strong late section. Realistic chance: value for exotic bets; a place would be a big scalp.
21. River Of Stars – Beau Mertens / Chris Waller – Barrier 14. Win $18, place $4.80. Strong recent form and proven in big-race conditions; barrier 14 is fair. Suits races that string out and allow closers to pounce. Realistic chance: dangerous each-way contender; must respect.
22. Royal Supremacy – Robbie Dolan / Ciaron Maher – Barrier 21. Win $31, place $7.50. Wide draw again but Maher knows how to get the most out of outside gates. Has the staying heart to be competitive; jockey booking is solid. Realistic chance: outsider with an each-way shout.
23. Torranzino – Celine Gaudray / Paul Preusker – Barrier 18. Win $34, place $8.50. A gritty local who relishes the Flemington contour; barrier 18 leaves work to do but the running style suits a testing tempo. Realistic chance: minor place chance if the race becomes a slog.
24. Valiant King – Jye McNeil / Chris Waller – Barrier 10. Win $8.50, place $2.90. Lightweight (relative) and drawn nicely; a classic Waller target to spring late. Can be a genuine improver with the 3200m to aim at. Realistic chance: leading contender for top-4; place or better is realistic.
The Roarhttps://https://ift.tt/Y82yWB9 Melbourne Cup form guide: Every runner’s chances rated, latest odds for race that stops a nation
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