In October 2025, Iraq, now coached by former Socceroos boss Graham Arnold, suffered a disheartening end to their latest qualifying phase. The disappointment was made worse by the circumstances: Iraq conceded no goals and produced a surprisingly disciplined performance, yet their arch-rivals Saudi Arabia leapfrogged them on goals scored, all coming from matches against Indonesia. Both Saudi Arabia and Iraq managed only narrow wins over the Southeast Asians, but Saudi Arabia found the net three times while Iraq managed just once.
The result does not mean Iraq are eliminated, as their journey continues next month against neighbours the United Arab Emirates. However, their failure to secure direct qualification means they now face a much tougher route. Iraq must navigate two consecutive home-and-away fixtures to reach the inter-confederation playoffs. Even if they make it that far, the path ahead is treacherous, with possible opponents including Cameroon, Nigeria, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama.
Graham Arnold (Photo by Ryan Pierse – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
Should Graham Arnold take the blame? In truth, he was a reluctant appointment, brought in to steady a sinking ship after Iraq’s collapse in the third-round fixtures against Kuwait and Palestine in March. Yet his reputation preceded him. During his time with the Socceroos, Arnold failed to record a single win against any of Asia’s top sides: Japan, South Korea or Saudi Arabia. This time, history repeated itself. Iraq stumbled at home to South Korea, rendering their victory over neighbours Jordan largely meaningless.
Once again, fate turned against Arnold. Iraq were solid and organised against Saudi Arabia in the fourth round, but the goals scored rule worked against them. And it was fitting, perhaps cruelly, that the beneficiary was Hervé Renard, the French coach who guided Saudi Arabia to a 1–0 win over Arnold’s Australia in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. The result extended Iraq’s winless run against Saudi Arabia in qualifying since their first meeting in the 1982 cycle and dealt another blow to Arnold’s already fragile tenure.
Some fans still believe Arnold can lead Iraq to their first World Cup in 40 years, but Iraq’s circumstances differ greatly from Australia’s. The Socceroos’ 2022 qualifying campaign was poor, yet institutional stability and strong leadership allowed them to recover just in time, culminating in the play-off victory over Peru. Iraq’s 2026 campaign was supposed to be straightforward, but it has instead unravelled midway through. The country’s chronic football instability and administrative turmoil make progress unpredictable. Unlike Australia, Iraq have limited experience on the world stage, having appeared at only one World Cup, Mexico 1986. Experience in major tournaments matters, and Iraq are starting from behind.
Graham Arnold. (Photo by Youssef Loulidi/Fantasista/Getty Images,)
The challenge grows even steeper when considering the possible play-off opponents. Excluding Oceania’s likely representatives, New Caledonia, every other contender poses serious threats. Cameroon and Nigeria are established African powerhouses. Bolivia are resurgent, having recently beaten Jordan in a friendly in Istanbul. Meanwhile, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras and even the Caribbean nations Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Haiti, Suriname and Curaçao are all capable of upsetting Iraq’s hopes. Opponents will have studied Arnold’s tactical patterns and will be ready to exploit his weaknesses.
On top of that, Iraq’s emotional fragility remains a problem. Arnold has tried to lift team morale, but cracks were visible in their matches against Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Under pressure, Iraq’s players often lose cohesion and composure. Against Indonesia, their opponents’ individual egos left openings that Iraq exploited. Against Saudi Arabia, however, it was the Green Falcons who kept their discipline. They absorbed Iraq’s early pressure and dictated much of the game. Even though Saudi Arabia failed to score, the draw was enough to secure qualification at Iraq’s expense.
Could Arnold’s Iraq have done better? Perhaps. But Arnold has struggled to adapt or impose a new structure when it mattered most. His time with Australia was saved by a combination of luck and circumstance, as both the UAE and Peru faltered when they had the chance to eliminate the Socceroos. There is a faint sense of déjà vu with Iraq’s 2026 campaign, a team surviving despite unconvincing performances and systemic dysfunction.
However, fortune rarely strikes twice. If Arnold wants to change Iraq’s trajectory, he must do more than hope for miracles. The problems are deeper than tactics. Iraq’s football system has long been plagued by poor management, inconsistent leadership and a lack of player development pathways. Unless those foundations are fixed, even the best coach will struggle to deliver results.
Time is running out for Arnold to prove he can make a difference. Iraq’s World Cup dream remains alive, but only just. Without structural change and a drastic improvement in mentality and consistency, that dream may slip away once again, along with Arnold’s last chance to reshape his legacy.
El Futbolerohttps://www.theroar.com.au/2025/10/17/arnolds-curse-continues-iraqs-world-cup-dream-lives-on-but-time-is-running-out-for-ex-socceroos-coach/Arnold’s curse continues: Iraq’s World Cup dream lives on, but time is running out for ex-Socceroos coach
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