The Rugby Championship this year has made fools of us all. As the All Blacks zigged when the Pumas zagged and vice versa, the Wallabies opened with their virtuoso performance at altitude and have gradually slid since to the Sydney seaside, whilst the Springboks began by being mugged in their Johannesburg backyard, only to grow each round until they devoured the Cake Tin whole in the final 20. Absent bonus points, the table would be even tighter (and thus more exciting for longer), but here we are, in one of the least predicted orders of merit: last year’s wooden spooners on top, New Zealand third, and a Bledisloe which will be crucial to the title.
What myths imploded along the way?
1. Super Rugby is Too Fast for Others to Cope
Deadlegged Boks at Ellis Park, out on their feet for the last third of a catastrophic loss, may have merely been undercooked as their inflictors, the Wallabies, were in the first Lions Test. However, a hue and cry went up, even misusing a video of Schalk Burger comparing the URC unfavourably to SRP (but years ago, before even one URC match had been played) to argue the Boks had shot themselves in the foot by being kicked out of the faster Southern Hemisphere speed rugby.
Two second half strong finishes in New Zealand later, added to the Pumas’ two wins against their former Super Rugby partners, and those nostalgic voices have quieted.
(Photo by Dirk Kotze/Gallo Images/Getty Images)
Over four rounds, we can see no clear evidence of Australia and New Zealand being the attack superiors: the Wallabies have offloaded on 5% of their carries, whilst the All Blacks have offloaded on 5.9%. Compare that to 6.3% and 7.7% respectively by the non-SRP teams.
In metres per carry, the Boks average 4.1 m/c, ahead of the Wallabies (3.7 m/c), Pumas (3.5 m/c) and an unimpressive 2.6 m/c for the All Blacks.
What proportion of carries led to a line break? 7.1% of the Boks’ have, 6.7% of the Wallabies’, 4% of All Blacks’ and 3.3% of the Pumas’.
As for beating defenders: New Zealand does so in 25% of their carries, South Africa 24%, Australia 23% and Argentina 21%.
Clearly, there is no clarity.
2. Effect of Coaching Identity is Not Exaggerated
The Wallabies are finding ways to win matches they would have lost in recent times, but so are the Pumas.
Neither have the depth of the ‘Greatest Rivals’ but both have found steely determination to close games out, cut out the silliest errors, and find more than one way to score tries. The Pumas can score quickly, or keep possession and grind time.
The Wallabies are in one mind, but have stronger set pieces now, and might be the maulers of the comp.
Joe Schmidt took a ragtag bunch short on belief, stuck with picks who did not play well immediately, taught what he had, and exacted precision.
The Wallabies celebrate a try against Argentina. (Photo by Julius Dimataga)
Felipe Contepomi inherited a righted ship from Michael Cheika, but has infused just that four or five percent more pride and healthy animosity.
The coaches picked by those coaches – Mike Cron, take a bow, as well as Geoff Parling – have also made a quantifiable difference in their portfolios.
For the top two teams of last year, it has clearly taken two years (and it may take more) to gel new assistants.
3. The Greatest Rivalry has a Rival Rivalry
Since Rassie Erasmus took over, his Boks have 8 wins to 6 losses (one draw) in their last 15 matches against the All Blacks (five in South Africa, five in New Zealand, and five at neutral venues). Sounds like a hot rivalry, no?
What about a rivalry which runs 8-2-5? The Boks and Wallabies (six in South Africa; nine in Australia, but still) have a hell of a thing going too.
Matchup styles matter (South Africa struggles more with Ireland than New Zealand, but handles France; New Zealand rules the Bledisloe but is not that flash in France). Argentina looks like it is normalising ‘upsets’ into ‘normal wins.’ We may look up soon and find the Pumas’ ledger closer to balanced against the Wallabies than we think it is.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
4. There is Not One Way to Win
Before oranges in Wellington, the Boks had kicked nine times. The try count was 1-1. By the end: 33 times out of hand, en route to a 5-0 try sequence built on kick regains, scrum dominance, and contact wins.
The Pumas did not get caught up in going to the corner: they took the three and won with a large try deficit and an indomitable air.
The All Blacks notched an Eden Park win with timely jackling and winning turnovers, after an early burst of wide to wide attack.
The Wallabies hijacked Ellis Park with searing kick returns; and rammed the winner home in Townsville long after the whistle, by turning down the three.
May we all refrain from calling anything ‘playing rugby’ as opposed to ‘set piece’ or ‘boring kicks.’ Rugby is filling stadia; we are just fine.
5. The Comp Never Changes
Having seen three of the four Bok matches live, and since the one I missed was a rout, the home-and-away Bledisloe seems to be in Aussie grasp. The Wallabies have been in every match and swept the Boks aside at altitude. The All Blacks were bashed at Eden Park and lost to Argentina for the first time in Argentina.
This is not a typical brace of games between these two antagonists. Not at all.
Harry Joneshttps://https://ift.tt/x1LgNaB Rugby Championship has made fools of us all: 5 myths imploded in epic battle for southern supremacy
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