With two rounds left to go in the home-and-away season, things are still incredibly, incredibly tight.
For the likes of Collingwood, Brisbane, Fremantle, Hawthorn and GWS, a single loss this week could throw their finals hopes into chaos: for the Western Bulldogs, it’s lose and, almost certainly, season over.
Three huge matches take the spotlight this weekend – Fremantle and Brisbane in a Friday night blockbuster that Seven miss out on (whoopsie! Have fun with Essendon and St Kilda); while Gold Coast and GWS is hidden away at 12:35pm on Saturday. Yes, really.
Then, there’s Adelaide and Collingwood on Saturday night, with the Crows going in in tremendous form and with the entire nation death-riding the Magpies. Should be fun!
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Tim Miller
St Kilda, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Carlton, Hawthorn, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs
With two weeks to go, time is fast running out to make a play for your tipping competition’s top spot – the question is: is this the round to go for a Hail Mary roughie or two, or do you save it for Round 24?
Let’s get through the easies first: St Kilda should have no troubles dispatching a Zach Merrett-less Essendon for a fourth win in a row, Geelong should face a stern test from Sydney at the SCG, but no Brodie Grundy tips this inexorably the Cats’ way, and in the final game of the round, the Western Bulldogs choking against a last-placed West Coast for a second time in two years is a level of tragedy surely not even the Dogs can contemplate … right?
Of little consequence in the grand scheme of things, Carlton versus Port Adelaide and North Melbourne against Richmond loom as sneakily good games between evenly matched foes. Both the Blues and Port showed plenty in defeat last week, while the Roos will surely be desperate of the humiliation in dropping below the Tigers having handed them their first-round pick this year. North’s final game in Tasmania is enough for me to back them, while the Blues at home should have the Power’s measure, especially if they can produce anything like their last quarter against Gold Coast.
Hawthorn have the toughest of this week’s banana-skin games, up against a Melbourne outfit in great form and keen to shape finals. The Hawks are better defensively than the Bulldogs or Eagles, the Dees’ last two opponents – you’d expect that would be enough, but Steven May’s return is a significant boost. I have a sneaky feeling the Demons have a win in them in this last fortnight against the Hawks and Collingwood.
Of the three huge matches this weekend, none are easy to tip at all. The closest to that is Adelaide over Collingwood, with the Crows surging into premiership favouritism and the Pies falling off the wagon over the last month. A win here would confirm the Crows as the team to beat and consign the Pies to spending the week outside the top four – but you cannot discount a team who hasn’t lost against their current opponent since 2016, and not at the Adelaide Oval at all for eight years.
The toughest tip of the round is Gold Coast and GWS – the Suns have been imperious at home all season, but they, like Adelaide, face their bogey side. Just once since 2015 have the Suns claimed the Expansion Cup – by a solitary point, in Ballarat of all places – but their midfield is firing, and while the Giants overran them earlier this year, this feels like a time for Gold Coast to make a statement and all but book their place in the top four.
Then there’s Fremantle and Brisbane, nicely handing Fox Footy Friday night’s true blockbuster. Home ground advantage says Freo win here, especially given the Lions’ long injury list and patchy form. But the reigning premiers seem to play better on the road than at the Gabba these days; if you’re looking for an upset this weekend, I’d back the Lions in to cause it.
Cam Rayner celebratees a goal with Zac Bailey. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
St Kilda, Fremantle, GWS, Carlton, Hawthorn, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs
With a fortnight left, there’s no room for teams to leave anything on the table, which should make for a fun end to the men’s home-and-away season.
Typically, the Friday night double-headers have been a terrible idea, although the fact the early game can be sandwiched between a decent AFLW contest and arguably the most important match of the season means we can largely ignore another Essendon game, which St Kilda should win easily.
Put simply, it’s a must-win for both the Dockers and the Lions. Fremantle have been on a roll despite not always putting together their best footy, with the upside being apparent for all to see; while Brisbane’s deficiencies have caught up to them and been the avenue to a couple of losses recently.
This one is huge, if Charlie Cameron makes it a month without kicking a goal, there’s no way for the Lions to win. Heave ho.
Another one of these important final-fortnight contests comes in the form of GWS’ visit to the Gold Coast, with the Giants teetering on the edge of the top eight. They’ve got an incredible record against the Suns, having only lost once to them in 2014. Something tells me there are a couple of wrinkles left in the season and while I’ve not thought GWS are a finals quality team throughout the season, this is the sort of mini-upset that causes chaos in the penultimate round.
The big match of the weekend comes around on Saturday night between the table-topping Adelaide and their kryptonite, the out-of-form Magpies.
My thoughts on the Crows were in yesterday’s article, but let’s just touch base on Collingwood. The drop-off has been apparent and the biggest factor through it all has been the absence of Jeremy Howe. Without Howe, the Magpie defence is shaky.
While I think Adelaide is a straight-sets candidate, and also that the Magpies are still one of the best four chances for the flag despite their current stretch, Howe’s absence in this one takes me to the current flag favourites.
The rest of the games feel pretty inconsequential, although Sydney will cause Geelong some inevitable headaches. Watch for North to string everything together in Tassie against the Tigers, and for the Bulldogs to try and not fall apart against the Eagles again when a win is needed.
Jeremy Cameron celebrates a goal in the 2022 grand final. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Liam Salter
St Kilda, Fremantle, GWS, Carlton, Hawthorn, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs
Oooh, boy. It’s getting real tight now. And really, really fun. And a little stressful.
Neither fun nor particularly stressful is the week’s opener – Essendon are languishing, while St Kilda have a bit of a winning streak going, Ross Lyon’s men will get the choccies.
Up next, everything is on the line for Freo and the Lions. I ain’t nervous at all, of course. It’s the scariest of propositions for the Dockers: win this, and they can avoid a nerve-wracking encounter next week. It isn’t like these high pressure games have ever gone wrong for them.
Brisbane’s undoubtedly a tough opponent, and scary coming off a loss, but the last ten weeks have exponentially increased my trust in my own club. I’m weirdly confident. Hahahaha. Dumb me.
It’s half interesting, half yawn-fest on Saturday. Let’s speed through the less interesting clashes: in the simplest to predict, the Hawks won’t face much trouble solidifying their finals chances against the Dees. Meanwhile, neither Port nor Carlton are very good, and I could see either winning – honestly, I don’t really care. Let’s go … [flips a coin] … Blues.
The interesting stuff bookends those two. The first of them is my toughest tip of the week, and one I’m bucking the trend for: the Suns will drop this one against a more desperate – and quietly rather good – Giants outfit.
And, in a potentially dangerous sign, everybody with a Crows allegiance I’ve spoken to – and they’re hard to miss this year, I can attest – feels weirdly comfortable headed into this week’s encounter with Collingwood. A few weeks back, I’d have pencilled this in for a “Pies win by two points late” kind of win, but credit to my overly ambitious Crows mates, I oddly don’t doubt their confidence. At home, in form, with the Pies beginning to flounder. For the first time since 2016 – yep, really – Adelaide have this.
North’s long season is so close to the end, and this is their best – and last – chance of a win against the similarly fledging Tigers. Praise be to anyone who sits through this one in its entirety, because I can’t imagine it’s going to be a good game. North’s pride still surely, surely – SURELY – exists just enough to not drop this one. Right?
No Brodie Grundy, no upset. That’s how good the Swans’ ruckman has been this year. It’s not impossible, of course, but what was a potential banana peel clash for Geelong has become significantly more comfy.
I wouldn’t blame any Doggies fan for feeling an ever-so-slight tinge of apprehension ahead of a date with a West Coast outfit so, so, so close to pulling off the year’s funniest result last week. This won’t be as funny. If the Eagles couldn’t make it happen with all the stars aligning last week, it isn’t happening this week.
The Dogs will keep their finals dream alive, and win by plenty.
| Round 23 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESS vs STK | STK | STK | STK | ? |
| FRE vs BL | FRE | FRE | FRE | ? |
| GCS vs GWS | GCS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| CAR vs PA | CAR | CAR | CAR | ? |
| HAW vs MEL | HAW | HAW | HAW | ? |
| ADE vs COL | ADE | ADE | ADE | ? |
| NM vs RCH | NM | NM | NM | ? |
| SYD vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| WB vs WCE | WB | WB | WB | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 132 | 129 | 132 | 140 |
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