There are things we can all agree on. The stadium in Brisbane was full. Beer flowed freely on Caxton Street for days before and after the first Test. The deep, loud red and hopeful gold scene looked good on screen. A win for the home team would have been an upset.
We can agree that going down 24-5 at 42 minutes to a deeper team in a Test poses a mountain too steep for almost any team to climb. We agree a handful of calls were tight or even dubious, but if we are working in good faith, they went 3-2 or 2-3. We agree the better team (on the day) won.
We agree the cap gap was abnormally large: only four Lions had less than 30 caps, just four Wallabies had more than 40.
We can agree at 72 minutes when Marcus Smith took his time to bang a sitter over for the visitors to go up by 15, the match (which felt decided at 24-5) was truly done as a win-loss contest. Three scores (at least two tries) in the time left were not on.
We agree the scrum battle was a victory for the Wallabies; lineouts a loss. We agree the first half try was from a box kick, perfectly weighted for trouble, and a strip and gallop to glory by Max Jorgensen; Waratahs in Queensland.
We agree Harry Wilson’s kicks were the best on his team, and any fair-minded observer will not fault him for ending the match unwinnable on his try line, preserving bodies for Melbourne.
We agree Finn Russell paired with Jamison Gibson-Park, and a settled 10-12-13 attack axis functioned well. We agree that the Wallabies did not lie down; their rear-guard action in the final half-hour spoke to their spirit.
We can also agree on less obvious takes: Andy Farrell made better tough calls than Joe Schmidt on selection.
All of his “but what about” picks (Ellis Genge over Andrew Porter, Taidgh Beirne over Ollie Chessum, young Joe McCarthy at starting lock rather than Beirne, Tom Curry over Josh van der Flier and Jac Morgan, Sione Tuipolotu over Bundee Aki) paid off; whilst the gambles Schmidt made performed only as well as an inexperienced blindside and flyhalf would be expected to (in camp and in country, other options abegging) and eschewing combinations in familiar spots (midfield, halfbacks) for precious cohesion simply did not get it done.
Tom Hooper has faced proper Tests (Loftus debut, a World Cup uphill, All Blacks on fire, lonely losses) and was the better Super Rugby Pacific player: either he or Pete Samu, one of the best players in one of the best clubs in the world, were less of a gamble than Nick Champion De Crespigny, who might just have the Pierre Spies syndrome: looking a bit harder than he actually is.
Max Jorgensen of the Wallabies breaks to score a try during game one of the series between Australia Wallabies and British & Irish Lions at Suncorp Stadium on July 19, 2025 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Other things we might (or might not) agree on: a host should not be the “underdone” team, especially with a dozen years notice, and the first Test is the most important one in a three-Test series against a stronger team, because in truth, it is a knockout game and an ambush fits first contact with an enemy, not a week later when Farrell can recalibrate the scrum, shore up the bench, and leave Gibson-Park and Russell on as long as he wishes, since they can seal the deal and enjoy the last Test in Sydney; perhaps even taking a few moments to visit schools and not be so unapproachable.
Finally, and perhaps I have lost many, we might agree that a power deficit in top Test rugby is the most difficult thing to overcome, but bridging that gap was more attainable than the other deficits.
Leading into the opener, Schmidt was quizzed about Rob Valetini and Will Skelton (more powerful than their understudies, and on par with Beirne and McCarthy) not being included. He admitted “they would have been in the mix” if it “was the last game of the series.” His concern about pushing them through was being in a worse spot if they proved unready. Point taken, but essentially then, Brisbane was relegated in Schmidt’s estimation. The MCG looms as his preferred site to vanquish the highly favoured Lions.
Is that wise?
Is it prudent, with the stakes at hand, to circle Melbourne as the OK Corral? An ambush relies on surprise. Thus, the introduction of Skelton now, as McCarthy works on a sore foot. A power surge in size 17 boots.
La Rochelle coach Ronan O’Gara cautions: “If you’re looking at Will to be the big player, you won’t get that first game back.”
Will Skelton. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Big men do often take longer to get their timing (in the clean, the carry, the lift) back. Skelton, as the biggest of all, may take longer still. If true, he should have had a cameo start or finish in the first Test. Farrell gave Tuipolotu and Beirne, two of his biggest question mark picks, the most minutes on tour.
Valetini is different: he plays rugby without tricks and would be good to go from the jump. In that respect, he is more like Pieter-Steph du Toit, the best at his position, because he just eats up minutes and carries and tackles from the jump. If he could have played, he should have played.
The game — staffed as it was — was no longer in doubt at 42 minutes and sealed a half hour later with the penalty. In between 42 and 72 minutes, Valetini and Skelton could have put the game back in doubt.
Both squads recalled old gunslingers: Owen Farrell and James O’Connor.
Old is relative: they still have loads of life. But they have seen it all; done it too. In 2011, at the swirling Cake Tin, O’Connor had to hold his nerve and knock the Boks out of the World Cup. Farrell has one of the best “game on the line” records in the modern game.
Farrell chose Marcus over Fin in the battle of the Smiths; but was it not a perfect spot for Schmidt to pull an ace?
Gambling on a rookie blindside almost never works, but Lions lore is full of Shane stories, the aged marksman who meets the moment (Morne Steyn in 2021, the latest version).
Tom Lynagh was game as a bantam rooster, but he was never going to have the presence, the gravitas, to wrest the contest from primetime Russell. Perhaps O’Connor, fresh from a Cup with the Crusaders, is now “just a closer” but if so, he is still a better bet to score quickly and nail a crucial kick than Ben Donaldson.
Harry Wilson of Australia kicks the ball to touch to conclude the first test match of the series between Australia Wallabies and British & Irish Lions at Suncorp Stadium on July 19, 2025 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Thus, imagine with me the Wallabies take the pitch with a couple hundred more caps (Skelton and Valetini start, going as long as their GPS justifies, buttressed by a 6-2 bench stocked with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Samu), play a grind down game, box kicking more (not less) for Max Jorgensen and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, using veteran Nic White to take heat off a young ten, then put local darling Tate McDermott on at minute 41, along with O’Connor because he is more likely to find Suaalii in space, and play for territory in which McDermott thrives.
Tom Lynagh of the Wallabies runs with the ball during game one of the series between Australia Wallabies and British & Irish Lions at Suncorp Stadium on July 19, 2025 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Now, maybe we disagree.
But this would pose questions for the Lions.
As it was, this was like a tennis match between two baseliners, both fully dependent on shot tolerance, and in their 20-minute warmup, head to head, Player A realises if they just bang full swing topspin groundstrokes, it is Player B who invariably folds first. Player A’s tactical calculus is simple: his wondering is over. Just prolong rallies and hit through the ball; he will win.
It is Player B who must throw a wrench into the machine: shorten the point, drop shots, tighter angles, offensive lobs, and off-speed wobblies.
Player B (Joe) must have known before warmups his game could not be to stand and bang, losing gainline, kicking as last resort after three phases, a la League, and expect a miracle. In rugby terms, lobs and drops and off speed junk, much like the Waratahs and Brumbies served up, keeps you in the fight longer than being brave and pointing later to a scoreboard which lies.
Farrell saw gainline superiority, a kicking quality gap (albeit Wilson outkicked Jack Conan), and an hour burst of sustained quality as enough to win the absolutely crucial opener. (Can you imagine the shock waves if the Lions had “choked” at Suncorp).
So all he did was pick the right racket, wear the right sneakers, make sure he had practiced enough, and took a full swing. Forty-two minutes was enough to take a “two set lead” in a five-setter. Rugby supplies the clock tennis lacks.
One hundred thousand or so fans will attend the likely decider; potential millions in Australia may see another 40 or 50 minutes of decisive action followed by a half hour of motion which means nothing to the result, followed by a nauseatingly early celebration by the Lions, who clearly did play some key men carrying a niggle, because Brisbane was essential.
Harry Joneshttps://https://ift.tt/CnRrkbY were you waiting for, Joe? Wallabies should never have been the underdone team with 12 years’ notice
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