It feels like forever since we last had a full nine-game AFL round – but after more than a month of intermittent byes, at last, every team will get on the park this weekend!
There’s still a bit of standard fixture weirdness to deal with – a Friday night double-header that ensures no one without a vested interest will be watching West Coast play GWS, and the AFL managing to schedule just two Sunday games that still manage to overlap – but overall, it’s just good to have wall-to-wall footy back again.
The problem for tipsters, though, is that after the easiest round of the season in which anyone that didn’t get a perfect 7 was playing catch-up, a nine game set makes it even harder to not get a tip wrong.
Crucially, though, this is the second week in a row in which no sides in the top nine play one another: after no upsets in Round 16, will this weekend bring a September-shaping boilover?
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Tim Miller
Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, GWS, Gold Coast, Geelong, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide
In another disastrous tipping season for yours truly, last week’s perfect 7 – and of course, a Bulldogs win – has me feeling bullish about Round 17’s tips.
This is one of those weeks where you just know there will be one underdog get up – and for me, there’s an obvious choice.
In fact, it’s not even technically an upset – with the top nine playing the bottom nine, Sydney are the sole favourites from the latter camp, with most pundits expecting them to take care of Fremantle at the SCG.
I’m not entirely convinced, mostly because the last two years have seen better Swans teams stunned on their own deck by worse Freo outfits, and hoodoos like that tend to stick. That being said, last years runners-up are looking in the best shape they’ve been in all year, should get Tom McCartin and Joel Amartey back into the team that lost to the in-form Bulldogs, and despite their winning record, I’m still not entirely convinced the Dockers are the finished product.
The rest of the round is pretty simple: in the easiest tier, anyone who tips Carlton to beat Collingwood on Friday night is either nuts or a Blues fan in denial, Geelong should rack up a cricket score on Richmond at GMHBA Stadium if they’re serious, and Adelaide at home are just better than Melbourne, about whom I’m not making the mistake of picking them for a second upset at the Adelaide Oval after tipping them against Port backfired.
Slightly harder, but still a safe tip, is Brisbane beating Port Adelaide in Adelaide – my only question is the Lions’ ordinary form at home, and the Power have the capacity to get up for the most random games – and a Josh Weddle-less Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium against a feisty St Kilda. I’m backing the Hawks, but can’t wait to see what Alix Tauru can deliver.
GWS and Gold Coast successfully navigating road trips against West Coast and Essendon respectively are also unsafe to back against – but still, I can’t help the feeling that one of them is going to have a disastrous loss this weekend. I’m not prepared to guess wrong and get BOTH tips wrong, though; but the Eagles in particular aren’t going as badly as their horror win-loss record would suggest.
Finally, if you’re feeling really adventurous, North Melbourne against the Western Bulldogs to begin the round is a legitimate choice for the second-likeliest upset of the weekend. The combination of the Dogs’ exhausting win over the Swans, a North team with a point to prove who were in good form before last week’s horror show against Hawthorn, and with the emotion of their centenary celebration on Thursday night, has me a little bit worried the Dogs are about to have a major spanner thrown in their works.
Jordan Clark and Fremantle celebrate defeating Sydney in 2024. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast, Gold Coast, Geelong, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Adelaide
It’s top 9 vs bottom 9 week in the AFL, it’s overlapping games all week in the AFL, it’s footy in the dead of winter. What a time to be a fan!
We’re all expecting North Melbourne to at least show some fight this Thursday after last week’s disgrace, but they have been hit hard by injuries and have a day less to prepare for this. It’s hard to expect them to get close to the Bulldogs, but if they can just get through this week unscathed, they can prepare to jump up the ladder next week.
It’s a sad and sorry state of affairs for Carlton at the moment. Collingwood are flying, the Blues are not. But would a shock result truly surprise? I mean, the answer is yes if you’ve been watching footy recently, but in this sort of game, stranger things have happened. Still, the Pies comfortably.
Blues fans might be grateful that they can switch across near half time to West Coast and GWS, but the rest of us shouldn’t be. This isn’t giving multiple clubs an opportunity at primetime if you need to divide the audience to achieve it. It’s not like the NRL, which never overlaps and has Friday double-headers; the point is that that’s not for our competition. This’ll be my upset tip – Eagles to win.
Essendon are welcoming back a host of stars and play host to the Suns. Gold Coast faces three tough opponents after this, and slipping up at Marvel simply isn’t an option given the difficulties ahead. I’ll tip the Suns – I trust them to an extent, but eyes are open for the danger game.
The rest of Saturday is pretty ho-hum – Geelong by a billion over the Tigers, Brisbane should account for the Power easily too, and I think the Hawks will beat the Saints comfortably, by virtue of having won seven of their last eight at Marvel and just being a better team.
The Sydney-Freo game on Sunday afternoon looms as the match of the round; both teams are getting fitter and trying to hit their straps. I’m expecting a professional win from the Dockers, and I think their quick ball movement when transitioning will really suit the SCG.
Finally, Adelaide keep demolishing bad teams, but not in a Port Adelaide of the last few years sort of way. They’ve graduated to the next level – not quite contenders, but a team that will make it hard for everyone else. They’ve got to treat Melbourne with disrespect, as all good teams should do to lesser opponents.
The final siren of Collingwood’s epic win over Carlton in the final round of 2022. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Liam Salter
Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, GWS, Gold Coast, Geelong, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Adelaide
North kickstart our week of footy, and they’re celebrating their centenary. For their fans, it’s probably felt like a hundred years since that win over the Blues just two weekends ago.
My tip – the Dogs, duh – isn’t nearly as interesting as what the eventual margin will end up being. Can the Roos show some fight, or will the Bulldogs repeat what Hawthorn did last weekend?
There are a pair of foregone conclusions in the league’s *other* dumb fixturing idea – double-up Friday night games. The first, and by some margin more likely to draw more eyeballs, is an old classic. The Blues are in strife no matter how you spin it, and as much as a win over Collingwood may spark something, I just can’t see it happening. Pies by a fair few goals.
And the Giants simply need to keep banking the wins, and won’t get an easier chance than winning over a nostalgic Eagles squad.
The Suns get their first of two chances to face the Bombers at Damien Hardwick’s favourite ever football venue. The Suns steadied after a wobbly few weeks with victory against Melbourne last week, and are favourites for a reason in this encounter.
The Cats are up next, and won’t be troubled against the Tigers, especially at home, while both Brisbane and Hawthorn are likely to be able to see off potential challengers in Port Adelaide and St Kilda respectively.
Freo – fresh off six consecutive wins, a very unnatural feeling – face the Swans. Ironically, I’d be more nervous if this was in Perth – these two clubs seem to have switched home stadiums when they play each other.
The Dockers don’t hate the SCG – in the dry, at least – so I’m backing them, though with much less confidence than the last few weeks.
And the Crows, suddenly in the hunt for the top four, will see the Demons as easy pickings.
Easy week, eh. We’ll see.
| Round 17 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM vs WB | WB | WB | WB | ? |
| CAR vs COL | COL | COL | COL | ? |
| WCE vs GWS | GWS | WCE | GWS | ? |
| ESS vs GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | ? |
| GEE vs RCH | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| BL vs PA | BL | BL | BL | ? |
| STK vs HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW | ? |
| SYD vs FRE | SYD | FRE | FRE | ? |
| ADE vs MEL | ADE | ADE | ADE | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 88 | 89 | 88 | 99 |
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