Penrith must defy more than two decades of history to make finals, with data showing no side this century has climbed from last place this late in a season to make the NRL’s top eight.
Saturday’s loss to Manly has left the four-time defending premiers on the bottom of the table, with coach Ivan Cleary insisting ladder position does not matter until July.
But history does suggest otherwise.
Since the ARL introduced a top-eight finals system in 1995, only Brisbane in 1999 have been placed last beyond round eight to have recovered to make the finals.
In the 30 seasons since, 15 teams ranked last after eight rounds have finished with the wooden spoon, while another six have run second-last.
Penrith’s best hope from this century could come from the Canberra team of 2002, who were last on the ladder after seven rounds before being knocked out in the first week of finals.
But even that side had a far easier path, as part of a smaller 14-team competition where Canterbury were effectively disqualified for salary-cap breaches.
Manly’s 2015 team also bear some similarities, ranked last after eight rounds before recovering to finish ninth and running out of puff late in the year.
“The statistics say it would be tough to do,” Geoff Toovey, who coached that Manly 2015 team, told AAP. “But it’s not impossible.
“If you’re in a team and it’s losing, it’s very hard to turn it around.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
“But once you do, and you start winning, and you’re on that winning streak, then it’s hard to stop that as well.”
Toovey has some experience with what Penrith are going through as both a coach and a player.
His 2015 Sea Eagles started 2-6 like Penrith, before a post-Origin burst put them on the cusp of the finals.
In 1998 he was also part of a Manly team that started the season slow after three straight grand finals, before recovering to be knocked out in week one.
“To be minor premiers and premiers for so long, mentally and physically you have to be right on your game,” Toovey said.
“So maybe that’s taken its toll after four years.
“You are the champions. Everyone’s after you. And to maintain that level of play that you need to sustain a winning culture is very difficult.”
Penrith suffered another blow in their season of struggle, with valuable back-rower Scott Sorensen hit with a three-game suspension.
Sorensen said he was disappointed by the verdict after he headed to the judiciary on Tuesday accompanied by coach Ivan Cleary and Panthers football manager Matt Cameron.
He was seeking a downgrade to a grade-two shoulder charge after the 32-year-old had been cited for an illegal hit on Manly prop Nathan Brown in the Panthers’ 26-10 loss on Saturday.
If successful in having his charge reduced to grade one, Sorensen would have escaped with a $1000 fine and would have been free to play Brisbane at Magic Round on Sunday.
Scott Sorensen was sent to the sin bin for this shoulder charge.
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Penrith’s situation is deepened by the fact they will lose their biggest names to State of Origin come round 12.
And while they have byes before the other Origins, players will likely need to back up days after playing for NSW.
Sunday’s Magic Round clash with Brisbane now looms as crucial, with the Panthers needing to bank points immediately.
Even if they do reach finals, a question remains over how much gas will be in the tank for a fifth straight title.
“Don’t write them off, because if they come home on a roll they will be very hard to stop,” Toovey said.
Des won’t back down over crackdown
Des Hasler has launched a fresh critique of the NRL, warning it risks hurting the integrity of the game if it shifts the goal posts on sin-bins mid-season.
In his third shot at the league in the past month, the veteran coach also challenged the NRL’s claim there had been no crackdown on foul play in recent weeks.
Data this week revealed that Hasler’s Gold Coast side were the most penalised team in the NRL for high tackles this year, with a league-high 18 blown against them.
It came as NRL bosses insisted the blame for the record number of sin-bins in round eight lay mostly with the players, with high-tackle numbers soaring.
But Hasler contended it was unfair to say his side were the NRL’s worst offenders, arguing that several penalties blown against his team were simply wrong.
“I agree with the majority out there that (CEO) Andrew (Abdo) and (chairman) Peter (V’landys) are doing a great job,” Hasler said.
“But for Andrew to say that there hasn’t been a crackdown is wrong.
“The consistency around that is really unclear.
Des Hasler. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
“No-one wants to see contact with the head, and we’re doing a good job with that, but accidents happen and it’s a forceful game.”
The NRL said this week it does not want the bunker to intervene too often, and to only stop play to go back and sin-bin a player for the most serious of tackles.
The league is adamant there is no change in policy, but rather the bunker interjected at times it shouldn’t have on the weekend while missing other sin-bins.
Hasler’s comments come after the Titans have lost their past four games, losing players to the sin bin in three of those matches.
And the Gold Coast mentor said it would be unfair if the NRL was to change its approach headed into Magic Round.
“Coming out and changing all this now, and moving the goalposts, it’s not being honest with the integrity of the game,” Hasler said.
“I don’t see why we have to do that.
“I feel sorry for teams that maybe got players suspended last weekend because of bunker interpretations, whether they be right or wrong.
“It seems like all of a sudden we’re going to move the goal posts, which is not a clear response.”
The NRL has insisted it will continue to sanction players the same for high tackles picked up in the run of play, or if there is a stoppage for injury.
Officials are also adamant that approach is not new, with head of football Graham Annesley pointing out this week the sin bin had been used for decades for high shots.
Match review committee officials have identified 379 tackles as being high this year, compared with 201 after eight rounds last year.
Not all of those have been charged, with the vast majority deemed “penalty sufficient”.
High-tackle penalties in matches are also up from 100 to 171 through the first eight rounds of this year, compared with last season.
Players have also been fined a whopping $104,650 for foul play this year, while being handed a total of 51 matches in bans.
That number is well up on the $86,850 in fines and 35 games of suspensions dished out at the same point last year.
with AAP
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