“Being clinical” is a rugby mantra, from the All Blacks to U14s. Coaches demand it, but what does it actually mean? More than gut instinct, one measure separates contenders from pretenders: 22-metre scoring efficiency – the points per entry into the opposition’s red zone.
Teams that rely on sheer volume of opportunities often falter in finals, while those that convert efficiently thrive. The past three Super Rugby champions mastered this metric, fuelling the Blues’ rise and sustaining the Crusaders’ dominance.
Rugby’s data revolution has transformed how teams, pundits, and fans quantify success. But compared to static sports like baseball – primed for the early Moneyball approach – rugby’s chaotic, context-heavy character makes statistical evaluation complex. At every breakdown or maul, it’s a farrago of bodies, obscuring who made it work – or fail.
Possession was once king, but the rise of tactical kicking (to many fans’ dismay) shifted focus to territory. Then came line breaks and 22m entries – highlighting the most valuable forms of territory.
Even these metrics have flaws. A midfield line break is more valuable than one near touch, even though both create an unstructured defence. Frequent 22m entries can signal territorial dominance, or wastefulness. Scoring at every entry forces more kick-offs and longer returns, while knock-ons may lead to easier exits. Consequently, standardisation is the best approach when comparing teams.
Points per 22m entry seems an obvious yardstick, spotlighting those teams that are ruthless in the red zone. It also equalises context. Several factors influence 22m entries: opposition playstyle, game situation, not to mention weather conditions. The method of entry also influences scoring likelihood
—a multi-phase attack reaching the 22m is far less threatening than a five-metre lineout.Despite these confounding factors, efficiency remains the best simple measure of a team’s ability to convert chances into points.
Crucially, the prime takeaway of the 2024 Super Rugby season was that scoring points is hard, even when close to the line. Only three teams were able to average more than three points per 22m entry: Blues, Chiefs and Reds. And more concerningly, six teams: Waratahs, Moana Pasifika, Force, Drua, Rebels and Highlanders averaged below 2.6 across 14 matches. Soberingly, Damian McKenzie’s competition-leading 86 per cent kicking success meant struggling teams were less effective than a DMac penalty each time they were in the opposition’s 22m. While an oversimplification, many teams wasted opportunities chasing tries at the expense of scoring points.
(Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
For points per 22m-entry conceded, there was more convergence in the centre with only the best and worst teams straying significantly from the pack. 2024 Super Rugby champions, the Blues, conceded just 1.64 points per entry (0.68 less than the second-best Brumbies) while the Melbourne Rebels, removed from the 2025 competition, let in more than double that—surrendering a massive 3.44 points per entry on average.
The Blues’ success was underpinned by their dominance at both ends, scoring most per 22m entry while conceding the least.
This efficiency transcends game style. The Blues could excel by restricting the rampaging Fijian Drua to four 22m entries in the quarter-final but also survive when letting in twelve 22m entries against the Brumbies. When they had 14 attacking entries to just five defensive ones (+9 being their largest difference of the season) in the grand final, they really cashed in with a 41-10 win to lift the trophy for the first time in 21 years.
Some good teams in the regular season struggled in finals as entries were a sparser commodity and high-flying attacks fizzled. The Hurricanes, the regular season table-toppers, were nowhere near as efficient as the Blues or Chiefs who made the GF.
Super Rugby Pacific tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Sign up here.
Their scoring volume was amiss when it counted, falling prey to more resolute defences in the finals. The inspiring Reds had a potent attack but lacked the defensive fortitude to compete with the best teams and were also bundled out at the first opportunity.
Even the Melbourne Rebels, who showed plenty of attacking flair, like the Hurricanes and Reds, were disappointingly wasteful in the strike zone. Their dominant set-piece was undone by a turnstile defence. A poor combination for a finals charge.
The Hurricanes dominated at both ends, averaging a league-best 11.88 entries while conceding the fewest at 7.44. But their volume-based attack crumbled in the semis, as the Chiefs’ superior efficiency prevailed. The Hurricanes were restricted to six entries, their lowest of the year and scored only 19 points.
Contrastingly, the Chiefs who only had seven 22m entries scored 30 points in the comfortable victory. This was a consistent problem for the Hurricanes who won all matches on the basis of having more attacking opportunities in the 22m than their defence allowed and had great regular season success doing this. But the three teams (Brumbies, Blues and Chiefs) who were able to have a positive 22m differential against the Chiefs, although only by one or two entries, were the three sides that bested them.
Perhaps the biggest 2024 storyline was the collapse of the Crusaders. For many years the Crusaders had been the best team in points per 22m differential (points scored per attacking entry minus points conceded per defensive entry). 2024 saw a major deterioration in this aspect of their game.
Over the past three seasons, the top five teams in 22m differential were:
• 2024 Blues: +1.77 (Champion)
• 2023 Crusaders: +1.02 (Champion)
• 2022 Blues: +1.01 (Runners-up)
• 2022 Crusaders: +0.94 (Champion)
• 2024 Chiefs: +0.87 (Runners-up)
The 2024 Crusaders had a points-per-entry differential of barely 0.16, a stark decline from their title-winning years. Their descent stemmed from a growing defensive frailty – conceding just 1.73 points per entry in 2022, 2.00 across season 2023, and a costly 2.45 in 2024, erasing their past advantage.
Rugby is a game of efficiency. The best teams aren’t just exciting – they’re ruthless. The Hurricanes dazzled with attacking flair but lacked the clinical edge of champions.
As expected the new Super Rugby Pacific season kicked off with thrilling rugby and high-scoring matches. However, when the finals roll around, it’s not just about big hits and territory gains – it’s about making every 22m entry count. The teams that do? They don’t just win games. They win titles.
Favourable Matchupshttps://https://ift.tt/LkyWnCV smarter: Why 22m efficiency wins Super Rugby titles
إرسال تعليق