Four teams. Two preliminary final spots. That’s the equation going into semi-final round.
Often, this is the most boring finals weekend, with top-four teams reeling from qualifying final defeats getting the chance to redeem themselves against an opponent whose biggest goal was reaching this stage. But that’s certainly not the case in 2024.
Both elimination final victors, Hawthorn and Brisbane, head interstate chock-full of confidence and with victory in their sights – in the Hawks’ case, they’re even favourites.
Standing in their way, though, are two foes with recent history on their side in Port Adelaide and GWS, and an air of desperation that after all the trials and tribulations of a wacky season, they can ill afford to spurn the chance at progressing to a hugely winnable preliminary final.
Who takes the chocolates and lives to fight another day… and whose journey ends here?
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Tim Miller
Port Adelaide, GWS
Yes. I’m picking Port Adelaide.
Friday night at the Adelaide Oval is one of those fiendishly difficult games to tip that so far in 2024 I have consistently come out on the wrong side of. On one hands, the Hawks are red-hot, have been a top-two team since their mid-season form surge after a 0-5 start, and know the terrain, having played in the city of churches three times this season.
On the other, the Power won their only clash with the Hawks this season – albeit in extraordinary, death-defying fashion – have home ground advantage on their side, and wouldn’t be the first team to cop a qualifying final thrashing only to rebound with a vengeance a week later.
My reasoning for backing Port is simple: this is, for all the criticism of the last week, a team good enough to bounce back from a shocker, and which regularly plays its best footy when the coach is on death’s doorstep.
If ever a team needed to make a statement, it’s this mob: and while the Hawks are a fierce adversary and will hit the Adelaide Oval with all guns blazing, a statement is what I think will occur.
I had an easier time backing in the other qualifying final loser; GWS were far and away the best of the week one losers, and quite frankly should be sitting back and awaiting a home preliminary final, with errant kicking for goal and a desperately risk-averse last 10 minutes letting Sydney come home over the top of them.
Brisbane are a huge chance here if they can bring the footy that saw them lead Carlton 60-0; but as we saw in that game, as well as in the two late-season losses – one to the Giants themselves – that cost them both top two and a finals double chance, the Lions seem incapable of showing their best with anything like consistency.
With a strong backline that can shut down the Lions’ many attacking weapons, and Toby Bedford back in the fold with Lachie Neale in his sights, it’s hard to go past the Giants here.
Darcy Byrne-Jones celebrates his winning goal against Hawthorn. (Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
Hawthorn, GWS
We’re met with a semi-final weekend full of potential stories and I’m here for it.
Friday night is tricky. In every way possible, Hawthorn are the better ‘team’ – they’re the best side in it and have been building towards this moment since 2021.
But the loss of Sam Frost is significant – he’s the only key defender of note with height and strength that Sam Mitchell possesses. Hawthorn have worked hard to restrict the number of inside 50s the opposition gets, which is why they thrive, and I’m sure they’ll cover Frost adequately… but it’s an underrated absence.
Will Day being ruled out so early in the week also has to be a worry for his future should the Hawks overcome this challenge, because Port’s star power through the midfield is clearly its advantage.
Add in the embarrassment against Geelong and it’s hard to believe the Power are just going to lay down against this youthful, brilliant team.
Ultimately, it’s going to come down to whether Port can adapt. They’ve defended the exact same way all season – I’ve already highlighted my concerns about it multiple times – and despite finishing second it seemed unsustainable, which was shown to be the case against Geelong.
Hawthorn’s speed and precision with ball in hand can easily get through the Power again if they play with the high line. That’s why I’ll side with the Hawks.
As for the other semi-final, I think it’s pretty simple. The Giants function with a better structure than the Lions, who are all-conquering when things are going smoothly and struggle a bit under a challenge.
They took their foot off the gas against Carlton and while the margin remained comfortable, the same concerns remain against a more ruthless team.
To me, this feels like a three-to-four goal margin to the Giants, and we move onto a fascinating set of preliminary finals.
Brandon Starcevich is tackled by Toby Greene. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Cameron Rose
Port Adelaide, GWS
It’s unfortunate that three of the best four sides left in the finals race are playing this week, with one of them sure to be knocked out, and potentially two of them if Port can bounce back.
The Port-Hawthorn final is an impossible one to tip with confidence. Hinkley’s Power have always ridden high and low, and never been anything but flaky at the key moments. They know how to lose a home final, and have proven that consistently over the years, but now get the chance to bounce back after a horror showing – in previous seasons their worst performance was often in a knockout game.
Surely they respond, but have they already had the stuffing knocked out of them?
Hawthorn keep showing up, but my suspicion is that they’ll run out of puff at some point in time. It’s a genuinely fascinating clash; I can’t go past Port as a value selection.
GWS and Brisbane are playing off for a grand final berth, with Geelong likely to prove nothing more than a speed-bump on the way through despite their qualifying final heroics.
The Giants will be seething after not being hard enough for long enough against Sydney on the weekend, and have shown over the years that they have a mental fortitude that should see them cope with the disappointment of their week one defeat.
The Lions won’t be easy to get past, even if GWS have defeated them twice already this year. That said, Brisbane beat them everywhere but the scoreboard when they met last month. Giants to win.
Liam Salter
Port Adelaide, GWS
This ought to be intense, eh?
Favouritism and a sold-out Adelaide Oval awaits the Hawks, who, after dismantling the Doggies last weekend, have only continued to gain fans.
Quick disclaimer: that (in a bandwagon sense) includes yours truly – Tim & Dem can attest, having both followed my ticketing journey on Monday.
Port are the underdog in this encounter, something which makes total sense when looking at last week’s capitulation in isolation – and to be fair,there’s not a lot of realistic cause of optimism.
Better midfield core than the Hawks? Technically, yes, but tell that to the Doggies. Ability to exploit a young, undersized Hawks backline minus Sam Frost? You’d think, but they got nada, zilch, zero impact from their tall forwards last week.
It’s the opposite tale for the Hawks: we know their small forwards will be running rampant, and love to feast on turnovers, creating a tactical nightmare for the home side if they produce a stinker like last week.
I’ve said all of that, but here’s where I’ve gone a little crazy: the Power have far, far more at stake. Ken Hinkley won’t survive a loss here. I won’t likely won’t survive my trip to the game, either – I’m going with a Crows supporting mate! For either self-preservation or a distrust of just how little chance Port seems to hold, I’m backing them.
Willie Rioli crumbs for his second to give the Power a spark
— AFL (@AFL) May 19, 2024#AFLPowerHawks pic.twitter.com/pcGm05H4Zg
The Hawks’ journey will come to an end tomorrow night… but god, they’re going to be terrifyingly good (again).
Saturday night’s foes had very different games last weekend. While the Giants were pipped at the post by the Swans, it was quintessential Lions to have led 60-0 in the second quarter – and only emerge with a 29-point win.
Alas, both lived to fight another day with this intriguing encounter, which is the Giants’ to lose.
It’s difficult not to be a little worried by how stagnant the Lions got late in last week’s clash – either through the Blues saving face or the Lions going overly cautious, the same thing won’t work against GWS. And that’s before the question marks about the Lions’ defensive stocks are taken into account – a Giants forward line is a frightening entity before even one possible injury in a hobbled Jack Payne.
Yes, they played a much more tiring qualifying final, and yes, Brissy can turn it on, but I trust the Giants more.
Toby Greene looks dejected after a loss.
| Semi-Finals | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA vs HAW | PA | HAW | PA | PA | ? |
| GWS vs BL | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 124 | 134 | 129 | 123 | 131 |
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