The finals are here at long last and just because the regular season is over, it doesn’t mean the tipping prognostications have ended.
Our expert panel will fight it out to the very last match but with only nine left in season 2024, the end of the road is in sight.
Week 1 of the finals kicks off on Friday night with two teams that hate each other with a passion. Penrith have taken the Roosters’ mantle as the kings of the NRL and the Easts outfit are smarting after losing nine straight to Ivan Cleary’s side.
Melbourne are red-hot favourites to beat Cronulla but the Sharks did knock them off at AAMI Park earlier in the season even when Nicho Hynes was out.
Saturday’s other match looks one-sided with the Cowboys at home to a Newcastle side reeling from the withdrawal of Bradman Best with yet another hamstring injury.
The other elimination final pits Canterbury up against Manly, a team that flogged them just a couple of weeks ago.
Here’s how the experts see Finals Week 1 unfolding.
Stuart Thomas
Panthers, Storm, Cowboys, Sea Eagles
At full strength, the Roosters would be a great bet heading into the first match of the finals. Yet with Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai back together and building, the champs will be hard to beat once again. A special game of rugby league almost ensured.
It is near impossible to pick against the Storm at home and I won’t be. The Sharks are the quietest team in the finals, they have sort of hung around all season and despite struggling against the top teams in recent years, still have to be beaten. Munster to star and the Storm win.
I’m not sure how the Knights are in the finals, but they are, and good on them for managing it on the final day of the home and away season. The Cowboys look hot right now and will have too many points for a team off the pace when it comes to the elite.
The Sea Eagles have a recent win against the Dogs and the blue and white’s form has been poor. Near 80 points have been conceded in a fortnight after being one of the best defensive units all season. Manly should be slight favourites and look for a bumper crowd at Accor. This could be a beauty. Golden Point.
Adam Elliott celebrates a try with teammates after scoring. (Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)
Nick Wasiliev
Panthers, Storm, Cowboys, Bulldogs
Nathan Cleary is a welcome return for the Panthers, and despite the arsenal at the Chooks’ disposal, they are now on a path they are very familiar with in the last few years. They know how to win games like this, and what the impact will be if they don’t. It should be a classic at Penrith Stadium.
The Storm should have enough firepower to get the job done over the Sharks – especially at home and with good players coming back into the ranks. Sharks will offer up plenty of questions, but Melbourne should have the answers.
The surprise package in the Knights may have snuck into finals, but they have their work cut out against the Cowboys away from home. Newcastle have been weaker on the road than at home, and with a few question marks around the squad, I’m backing North Queensland.
Josh Addo-Carr aside, the Dogs are welcoming back a plethora of talent to the side, while for the Sea Eagles, Tom Trbojevic is a welcome return. This will be the closest match of the round in my opinion, but I back Canterbury. It’s been a great season of growth for them and I back them to at least make it to semis based on that.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Panthers, Storm, Cowboys, Bulldogs
I rarely feel for the Roosters, but they have lost several key players leading into finals, whilst the Panthers welcome back their key player, Nathan Cleary. While Penrith have not been as indestructible in recent weeks, Cleary is a game changer and shows time and time again that he is the difference and can create attacking opportunities out of very little. The Roosters will put up a strong fight, but key injuries will prevent them going too far into this finals series.
Given just how dominant the Storm have been this season it’s hard to see anything other than a big win for them against the Sharks in front of their home crowd.
The next game will be fun. Both teams are inconsistent and for the Knights, they have done well to scrape into the finals. It’s a tough ask going up to North Queensland in the heat and I’m tipping the Cowboys. Jake Clifford has seemed to really steady the Cowboys attack and led to some high scoring displays for them in the last couple of weeks.
This last game is a coin flip for me with both teams coming into the finals with questionable form. I’m tipping the Bulldogs based on vibes and the 50,000 people in blue and white that will be there at ACCOR on Sunday. Manly had their chance for a home advantage and absolutely blew it.
Paul Suttor
Panthers, Storm, Cowboys, Bulldogs
Whether Nathan Cleary is fully fit or not, the Panthers should be too strong across the park for the depleted Roosters. Penrith by 10
Cronulla will take this one down to the wire and the Storm will be on edge because they don’t lose to them twice in a season at AAMI Park. Sharks by 6 in a boilover
If the good Cowboys show up, they will win by 20-plus at home against Newcastle. If it’s the other Cowboys who show up every second or third week, they will win by two.
Canterbury are vulnerable and Manly did a number on them a couple of weeks ago. Bulldogs by 4
Nathan Cleary. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
AJ Mithen
Panthers, Storm, Cowboys, Bulldogs
Nothing special this week, no silliness just straight tips. It’s the business end of the season and will be treated as such…
Two of the top four teams have ‘finals mode’ and it’s Melbourne and Penrith. They will raise the intensity to a point Cronulla and the Chooks cannot match.
The other games will be decided by finals rules, which benefit the more defensive team. The ‘finals whistle’ Will let Canterbury defend their way to a narrow win over the Sea Eagles and in the last game the Knights will be able to keep it a bit closer thanks to slower Rick’s and less penalties, but the Cowboys should still have too much.
Mike Meehall Wood
Panthers, Cowboys, Storm, Manly
Nine games to go and a three game lead for MMW – this weekend could ice the entire competition, all going well. With that in mind…
Penrith will dispose of the Roosters, an easy tip seen as Easts turn into pumpkins whenever they get on the M5, or indeed, when the mountains come to them. I’m not sure where this metaphor is going. Perhaps, like the Sydney Roosters, it is going nowhere.
Newcastle and the Cowboys are both deeply unserious, and as ever when both teams are meh, I tip the ones playing at home. That’s North Queensland, so, I suppose, go Cowboys.
The Storm might have lost to Cronulla at home earlier this year, but that was a fluke and flukes don’t happen often. Melbourne will worsen Craig Fitzgibbon’s finals record yet further this weekend.
After a year of reverse psychology tipping against my Sea Eagles, I’m going to take a total heel turn and go for my beautiful Beaches Boys. They will travel to Homebush and return alive, stopping at every Ezymart and asking for phone chargers all the way to the Spit Bridge. Manly Hates You Too!
| Finals W1 | Stuart Thomas | Nick Wasiliev | Mary K |
Paul Suttor | AJ Mithen | Mike Meehall Wood | The Crowd |
| PEN v SYD | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | ? |
| MEL v CSS | Storm | Storm | Storm | Sharks | Storm | Storm | ? |
| NQC v NEW | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | ? |
| CBB v MSE | Manly | Bulldogs | Bulldogs | Bulldogs | Bulldogs | Manly | ? |
| Last Round | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2024 tally | 127 | 131 | 117 | 128 | 106 | 134 | 128 |
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