Every year there is talk about how even the AFL competition is, but the 2024 home and away season has proven to be the most even of all.
Only six games separated top of the ladder (Sydney) and 14th (Melbourne), the closest gap there has been between those positions since the inception of the 18-team competition. Usually, we see around ten wins between those two spots, up to 12 in some seasons.
Fittingly, we seem to be hitting September in a situation where there is more belief in some teams outside the top four than there is for those that actually landed the double chance.
It’s hard to argue against the fact that Sydney’s best this season is the best we’ve seen all year, but how far off that mark are they?
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After Round 15, the Swans were three games and 40 per cent clear of their nearest rival, which is a tough mental spot to be in with a third of the season to go. Their win-loss ratio since that point is less than 50/50, even if they did beat three non-finalists to finish the year with some level of confidence. They are very much an unknown for a team that finished on top.
Port Adelaide have long been one of the flakiest teams in the AFL, so will never be trusted to get the job done while Ken Hinkley is at the helm. They’ve made an art-form of losing home preliminary finals, on the odd occasion they do make it that far. It was only two months ago the Power were barely clinging to a spot in the eight, and the coach was being attacked by his own supporter base.
Ken Hinkley addresses Port players. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The Port midfield can do some damage, but can the forwards and backs do enough consistent damage in September? That remains to be seen.
It’s hard to think of a worse team to finish as high as third, as this Geelong outfit. Well done to Chris Scott for conjuring that result, but he’ll need others to choke in order for the Cats to contend. Perhaps they will.
GWS got the result they wanted by dropping their Round 24 game to the Western Bulldogs, getting to face their September bunnies in Sydney. They had won seven in a row before that game, so it may have been the loss they needed to have before peaking in September.
The Giants are almost in perfect health, have the most in-form key forward of the eight finalists, and plenty of finals experience. They also have that core group of Toby Greene, Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Lachie Whitfield that have either hit 30 or are just about to. The timing could be right.
Brisbane may come to rue 30 minutes of football late in 2024, as much as they do the 2023 grand final loss. The Lions held five-goal leads in both Round 22 against GWS and Round 23 against Collingwood, yet conspired to lose both games. They fell apart in the last quarter against the Giants, and the last minute or two against the Pies.
It’s hard to truly contend for more than six consecutive years, and Chris Fagan’s men may have fired their shot. It will take a herculean effort to win the premiership with three consecutive weeks on the road, potentially travelling to three different states.
The Bulldogs certainly haven’t done things in halves in 2024, either winning big or losing big for most of the season. They’ve won six of their last seven coming in, by an average margin of eight goals, beating four fellow finalists in that run. They have been irresistible when getting the game on their own terms.
The question is, how will Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy stand up to the heat of finals? What could be a windy MCG and wide expanses is a different proposition to Marvel Stadium, the SCG and Kardinia Park where they have had their recent successes.
It’s hard to recall a story as exciting as what Hawthorn have produced this year, winning 11 of their last 13 games to go all the way from the bottom four to a finals berth, off the back of mostly youthful chutzpah, and incredible teamwork.
The key to the Hawks is how even their contribution is across the ground, because there is no standout player in any area. They have the widest cast of revolving midfielders in the league, a rotating forward-line of eight players that average 1-2 goals a game, and a backline that shares the load between talls, mediums and smalls, all capable of defending or attacking when the time is right.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan celebrates with Aaron Naughton after kicking a goal. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Most neutrals would agree, it’s a shame that one of the Hawks and Dogs is going to be knocked out of the finals race come Friday night.
Carlton have limped into September with an extraordinary injury list, amid talk that they might get eight first-choice players back for their trip to the Gabba on Saturday night. It would be beyond remarkable to think they could all be rock-hard fit and ready to contribute with finals pressure at its fiercest, and very difficult to see.
I’m going with the Giants as my premiership-elect, on the basis that they look the most likely of the top four to be peaking at the right time of year, and have the right mix of talent, reliability and experience.
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