This year’s close finish to the AFL season has made things as exciting as possible for fans of more than half the league’s clubs, with 13 teams chasing eight finals spots down the stretch.
But from a competition point of view, are all of them worthy of playing finals – or are some among the mix only due to widespread mediocrity? Not necessarily their own, but that of other teams.
We are getting to the stage of the season where teams should be improving heading into the biggest games of the year – instead, the majority are going backwards.
Carlton should have cruised to a top two spot, if not at the very least a top four spot. It’s not necessarily the fact that they’ve lost four of their past five – only beating North Melbourne, eventually – but it’s the way that they have been losing.
In two of those games, they held big leads only to collapse. Even though their opponents had just as much to play for, the Blues’ heart and desire to win just wasn’t there, and it’s hard to see it returning in the finals at a flick of a switch – especially now that they look set to have to do it from 5th-8th once again.
It’s also hard to believe that Sydney are now arguably the most out-of-form team in the competition still in the running for finals, yet still hold top spot.
It’s been a weird season for the Swans, with their sole loss until round 15 coming against the last-placed Richmond, but since Logan McDonald missed two late match-winners in consecutive weeks against Fremantle and St Kilda, the team has been in freefall. Slow starts and a drop off in effort and team investment are costing them, almost erasing their hard work to start the year.
The Swans’ 112-point loss to Port Adelaide came as a shock, if not for the scoreline but the slow, disconnected, lazy way that they played from the opening bounce.
Geelong is a confusing side. Yes, they keep winning and have only lost to the red-hot Western Bulldogs since round 15, but it’s mostly been against lower-ranked opponents. Chris Scott’s men have got the four points in five of their last six to be top-two contenders still, but haven’t always played pretty, and for the full four quarters.
There is no doubt that at their best the Cats are premiership contenders, but the question remains: do they have another gear to lift when they are going to be challenged far more in a month’s time?
Fremantle is a team that promised so much mid-season but haven’t quite stood up when the pressure has been applied.
Fremantle and Collingwood players react to their draw. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The scoreboard shows a comfortable win in the Derby against state rivals West Coast, but it doesn’t show how much they were challenged, especially in the first half, by a team third-last on the table.
Then this weekend, to travel to Melbourne and give up a lead of more than 20 points in the final quarter to Essendon does not show signs of a team readying themselves for finals.
Essendon’s problems are well-documented. Although the Bombers’ win would have given them a little confidence boost, the result was just as much impacted by Freo’s inability to close out the game. Before that, they’d endured four losses in five games.
Despite the result, the Bombers are another team that had some great form early in the year, but when they are supposed to be peaking, are going the other way.
Melbourne and Collingwood have not looked like challenging the finals race from basically their King’s Birthday clash. A rare glimpse of form here and there is not going to win any trophies.
Hawthorn has been an exciting team to watch for the past few months as their young squad shows signs of development ahead of expectations. But maybe, just maybe, they aren’t quite there this season. Next year, look out.
It hasn’t all been doom and gloom heading into the final rounds, as some teams have used some very dismal results early in the year to develop and make progress.
There are really only four teams worthy of premiership considerations: on current form: the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and GWS.
Given the mediocrity of the teams above, these four have surged to be flag contenders after being written off by many throughout the year.
It was so bad at the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, that according to reports, they were on the verge of immediate coaching changes.
The Giants had a major form slump mid-year, but since coming back to beat Carlton, they have lifted to win big moments in games, most recently in their stirring comeback against the Hawks on the weekend, which is exactly what needs to happen in September.
The Wildcard Round idea is a complete waste of time
There has been speculation that the AFL are considering a ‘wildcard’ round, to allow teams that finish ninth and 10th to face off against seventh and eighth for the final two places in the finals.
This may create an extra couple of matches on the television in the bye weekend, and money for the AFL, but from a competition integrity point of view it’s all smoke, mirrors and marketing.
The teams currently making up places 9 and 10 are in that place for a reason. There are 24 rounds to secure a place in the finals: if that’s not enough, then you don’t deserve to be there.
Clayton Oliver is tackled by Lance Collard. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
There is a real chance that Sydney could finish the season on top. It wouldn’t be a massive stretch – even on current form – to win the last three games against Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide and take the minor premiership.
But then what? They will face a top-four side in the first week of the finals, and then one of the winners of the elimination finals, which previously has been discussed could be the Bulldogs, Power or Giants – which would make it hard to avoid a straight sets exit.
It is often considered at the start of the year that making finals is a par score, however, what is the point of making the eight to be the first team out? The goal should be pushed back one week, and an average result for the year should be at least making the second round of the finals.
On history alone, a ‘wildcard’ team is unlikely to be a real challenger, and just keep mediocre teams alive for one week longer.
A better idea would be to make a top six finals series and make the grand final like the NBA: best of three.
Yes, that might sound ridiculous at face value to traditionalists, but it would be more competitive and create more interest than making a place for a team that can’t complete a full season as it is.
That said, while most teams are falling away, it’s hard to go past Brisbane making amends for last year’s grand final defeat at this stage.
The Lions have at least made the second week of the finals every year since 2019 and are playing like a team with revenge in mind.
Unless anyone else stands up to them, it could be an ugly mauling in September.
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