Set-piece ascendancy represents Australia’s only path to victory at Eden Park. If the Wallabies can humble the All Blacks at scrum and lineout time, then the wheels will fall off the home side.
It’s the forwards who’ve kept New Zealand credible, of late.
It’s them who’ve been rock solid, and occasionally dominant, allowing the backline to muddle along behind them.
South Africa’s recent Test matches in New Zealand fascinated me because of how badly they exposed the All Blacks in the set pieces. Maybe I haven’t been watching closely enough, but I didn’t believe they were an area of even remote concern.
Instead, what those games at Eden Park and Sky Stadium showed us is that the whole team can quickly descend into disarray if the pack gets beaten.
The Springboks’ own ineptitude flattered the All Blacks at Eden Park. They were much more ruthless second time around.
The point is, a frailty was unearthed that only underlined how consistently poor New Zealand’s back play is.
They’re largely incapable of constructing anything, relying instead on Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan or Damian McKenzie to conjure something miraculous.
Beauden Barrett of New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
That lack of ideas was made plain by the fact that all three started in Wellington a week or so ago. We know McKenzie’s presence minimises Barrett’s ability to impose himself, and we know Jordan is only half the player when stuck out on the wing, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
Yes, we’ve reached that stage where the All Blacks are hoping that by putting all their primary playmakers out there together, one of them will regather a chip kick and go in under the bar.
It kind of makes you wonder why they bother having coaches or actually training when you’re almost relying on luck.
Anyway, that’s the All Blacks’ issue.
Australia’s is finding the strength to dominate the set pieces.
I’ve found the Wallabies a hard team to get a read on this season. They improved with every outing against the British & Irish Lions, stunned South Africa and everyone else in Johannesburg and then made pretty hard work of things in both outings against Argentina.
I’m inclined to think Australia’s win at Ellis Park was a fluke and that the Springboks were beaten by complacency, as much as anything else.
I just don’t think the Wallabies have the mental strength to win at Eden Park and I’m not sure they’re robust enough either. That’s why I isolate the set piece situation.
If Australia are the better team there, then the All Blacks might completely implode. The Wallabies won’t have to worry about their own mental frailties, because the All Blacks will be battling enough of their own to settle the result.
Another loss would be good for All Black rugby. Winning on Saturday will allow the team and its many supporters to conclude that the previous game was an aberration.
I genuinely believe that 43-10 result told us plenty about New Zealand’s player pathway, the quality of our coaching and the blind faith we have in our established stars.
Ardie Savea of New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Graham Henry, Wayne Smith, Steve Hansen and Mike Cron didn’t get everything right when they were the cornerstones of the All Blacks’ coaching group. They might not have won every game, but they certainly inspired more confidence among all of us than any of the men since.
Ian Foster started with John Plumtree and Brad Mooar and off they soon went. Leon MacDonald had an even shorter spell as Scott Robertson’s main sidekick and no-one still in the current coaching group has shown us anything to suggest they’re doing a job comparable to that of some of their predecessors.
Again, at the risk of repetition, the All Blacks’ gameplan appears to be hope that the forwards hold their own and that one of the backs will then do something freakish.
That worked tolerably well until the Springboks dismantled New Zealand’s pack and the deficiencies of the backline – on both attack and defence – were laid bare for all to see.
I hope Australia can make a contest of it, over the next couple of weeks. Hell, I’d go so far as declaring I’d be ecstatic if they were somehow good enough to reclaim the Bledisloe Cup.
Anyone who’s watched All Black rugby over an extended period of time, knows it’s not in great heart at the moment. But every win buys time and prevents anyone from having to have a real look at why.
I’ve come to the conclusion that it’ll take something catastrophic – such as losing the Bledisloe Cup – before we’ll get a realistic appraisal of where our rugby is at.
Hamish Bidwellhttps://https://ift.tt/C15KFUs Park was a fluke and Wallabies lack the mental strength to win at Eden Park – but they have one hope
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