It’s officially winter in Australia – and while it’s still lovely and warm in Brisbane and Perth, apparently, for the rest of us it’s time to rug up, dust off the electric fire, and brace for the cold months ahead.
And if it’s chilly for us, I can’t imagine how the Big Freeze sliders will react on King’s Birthday, on the tenth anniversary of the iconic event spearheaded by the great – and now Australian of the Year – Neale Daniher to fight motor neurone disease.
It’s an incredible cause, and that and Collingwood’s clash with Melbourne are the highlights of what looms as another fascinating weekend of footy. Here’s how our experts think it’ll play out.
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Tim Miller
Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, GWS, West Coast, Essendon, Collingwood
There are only two relatively straightforward games to tip this weekend – Collingwood over Melbourne on King’s Birthday and GWS to take care of Port Adelaide on Saturday night – and that I can foresee an upset in both of them says plenty about how tough this round is.
That means I’m leaning on trusty home ground advantage to get the job done in most cases – starting with Thursday night, when the Bulldogs at Marvel face a Hawthorn outfit facing its first true challenge since lifting themselves into the contenders 12 months ago.
The Hawks have a tremendous recent record against the Dogs, but the struggles of their midfield to deny opposition scores from clearances is a disastrous weakness to have against the AFL’s most lethal stoppage team.
Friday night sees a rare non-Victorian prime time clash – take that, Vic bias! Adelaide are still yet to take a major scalp this year, but they’ve still been tremendously impressive in pummelling teams below them. I’m still not entirely convinced about Brisbane, despite their mounting win tally, and expect this to be a loss that confirms they’re not quite ‘beating good teams on their own turf’ levels of good at the moment.
A fortnight ago, the suggestion you’d tip Richmond to beat Sydney anywhere would have been laughable, but the Swans are in dire straits and I reckon the Tigers smell a bit of blood, pardon the pun. I’m not prepared to back against the Swans, though – surely on pride alone they rise and take care of a team who are performing out of their skins at the moment.
Gold Coast, as a stark contrast to fellow expansion club GWS, have never in their history won at GMHBA Stadium. On the road, after a challenging month that has included significant wins in Darwin and a come-down loss to Fremantle in a wet slog, I can’t see them overcoming Geelong on their own deck.
Speaking of ‘on their own deck’, North Melbourne host West Coast in their spiritual home of … Bunbury? Yes, it’s time for the Kangaroos’ new home away from home – but at least they’re not playing at Optus Stadium, so the terrain is new for both teams.
In the AFL Tipping competition, I’ve got the eagles as my Gauntlet tip for the round, because I have to pick them eventually, they’ve actually been decent at home in recent weeks, and I’m a glutton for fans getting upset at their clubs for selling winnable games elsewhere and giving up premiership points.
Hardest tip of the round? It has to be Sunday night’s Essendon-Carlton clash. The Bombers defied their injury list to push Brisbane all the way last week, while the Blues’ poor form looks even worse when you realise how two of the teams who beat them recently, Sydney and GWS, are going at the moment.
On form, you’d have to back the Bombers. And you know what? That’s exactly what I’m going to do.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
Hawthorn, Brisbane, Sydney, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood
What a superb weekend of footy we’ve got ahead of us. The quality would be great if not for the cataclysmic weather conditions facing more than half the contests.
Still, we tip and we watch and we enjoy as the calm, peaceful and respectful footy fans we are.
That seems like a perfect segue to unpack the Melbourne King’s Birthday game first! They struggled against the Saints – inefficiency is such a long-standing issue for this group. Sloppy conditions should make that less of a factor, but the Magpies are firing on all cylinders and are the deserved flag favourites.
As the round opens on Thursday night, James Sicily’s absence might solve an issue or two for the Hawks. They’re in a slump, and the Bulldogs are better than a ninth-placed team. I suspect this will be a close game – whoever loses might be outside the eight and it won’t make a difference on their September chances, whatever the media says.
The Hawks have won six of their last seven at Marvel. That’s reason enough for me to back an upset.
The Lions are unconvincing, while the Crows keep answering the questions asked, but haven’t pulled off a big performance against a properly good team. It’ll be wet on Friday night in Adelaide, which eliminates the intercept game of Mark Keane.
Brisbane typically struggle in South Australia, but they can’t keep barely getting by, surely? This could end up being a 45-45 draw, I’m flipping a coin – the flag favourites for me.
The Tigers have been so, so impressive, but it’s hard to fathom the Swans free-falling further at the MCG. On the flipside, on Saturday night, Port’s slide probably does continue against the Giants.
Saturday twilight is not the marquee slot that the AFL has had it be a couple of times this season. Geelong playing Gold Coast, both teams fighting for spots in the top four, shouldn’t be hidden away here.
Anyway, the Cats are certainties to finish with a double chance, given their draw. The Suns are floundering a little when challenged, and weeks of travel and backing up a heavy game against Fremantle with another one might be tough on their bodies.
Sunday should be fun enough – the Eagles and North are both on the right track and it will be interesting to see how many people get to Bunbury for this classic home game for the Kangaroos. While I won’t go as far as to say it’s home-ground advantage that will make a difference, North’s structure and being less undermanned is just enough for me.
Finally, Carlton just has to win on Sunday night. They’ve really got no choice, not for the sake of their season, but perhaps the sake of their coach, even if a change could end up being what’s best for all. Blues to beat the Bombers.
Dylan Moore of the Hawks is tackled by Adam Treloar of the Bulldogs. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Liam Salter
Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood
As we hit the second of what feels seventy bye rounds, we have an eight game weekend. Let’s speed-run this.
The three obvious ones first: the Cats won’t lose to a (still good!) Suns squad who’ve never won at GMBHA Stadium; Port should go from bad to worse with a tricky encounter in Canberra and the Pies – bad for us all – are scarily good and shouldn’t have a lot of trouble against the Demons on King’s Birthday.
The Dogs are the league’s best team currently sitting outside the eight, and are arguably better than some teams inside it. One of those is Hawthorn. Doggies by a few goals.
As for Friday evening, I’d be reluctant to tip against the Crows anywhere, especially not at home. Even if they’re against the minor premiers. This will be a beauty.
A little trickier is Saturday’s Richmond-Sydney game. I want to tip the Tigers so, so badly, but expect – for pride, if nothing else – even the rabble (sorry?) that is this Swans side will win.
A day later, a similarly tricky clash between two not very good teams plays out on Sunday night. The Blues are languishing, Bombers are very meh. Carlton, I suppose.
The weekend’s most intriguing game (in my chaotic opinion) is North hosting the Eagles … in Bunbury. Money, baby.
The Eagles have been surprisingly good the last fortnight, but it’s going to be a very long two-week stay in WA (they have Freo, at Optus, next weekend) for North if they drop this.
| Round 13 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WB vs HAW | WB | HAW | WB | ? |
| ADE vs BL | ADE | BL | ADE | ? |
| RCH vs SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | ? |
| GEE vs GCS | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| GWS vs PA | GWS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| NM vs WCE | WCE | NM | NM | ? |
| CAR vs ESS | ESS | CAR | CAR | ? |
| MEL vs COL | COL | COL | COL | |
| LAST WEEK | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 68 | 68 | 67 | 77 |
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