Sports are about competition; winning and losing, but this weekend it’s about rivalry; and few rivalries stretch as far back in Australian history as the Queensland Reds against the New South Wales Waratahs.
The coach of the maroon camp, Les Kiss, has built a reputation for his side on balling, playing with skill, execution, and seemingly throwing caution to the wind.
The coach of the sky blue camp, Dan McKellar, has made his side live off hard, attritional, forward dominated play. It hasn’t been pretty, but they have overpowered their adversaries so far.
The rivalry between these two sides reared its head even before the end of last round, with McKellar firing a shot at Queensland in the post-match press conference, after thumping the Western Force.
“They’re the best team in the comp,” McKellar said of the Reds, and he later doubled down on it. McKellar is known for playing mind games, and it started early this year.
The tribalism between these two teams, between these two states, and between their players, is often because so many of the players know each other off the field and want to get one over their mate.
Injured Reds’ lock Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, fired off a shot on social media straight at the ‘Tongan Thor’, Taniela Tupou.
“The things I’d do to head high this guy [Tupou] off the ball this weekend #NSWvQLD…” he wrote on social media.
What makes it even greater, is knowing they are good mates from the Wallabies environment and have shared a few seasons together at the Reds as well.
All this banter, rivalry, and shots fired aside, this Aussie derby has been one of the best across all the Super Rugby iterations and it always delivers something special.
The serious aspect of this weekend’s match is that there are points up for grabs, ladder positions to be attained and pride for the coaches.
Kiss is the apparent favourite, within the Australian landscape, to take over from Joe Schmidt as Wallabies coach, but McKellar is also in and around that bracket.
The winning candidate is yet to be announced, with both coaches wanting to put their best foot forward, when the two sides clash on Saturday night.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
The two coaches have two opposing styles which will go head-to-head at Suncorp Stadium, with Kiss’ Reds playing a fast, baller, razzle-dazzle game, while McKellar has his Tahs playing a crash-and-bash, brawler, attrition game.
This is reflected in their stats: with the Tahs only conceding 7.7 entries into their 22m per game, the fewest of any side.
Conversely the Reds have scored the most points per attacking entry into opposition 22m zones, at 4.1 points per entry. Which is telling if you acknowledge the fact the Reds are second for tries scored, and Waratahs sit in sixth, it is truly a game of the sword and the shield respectively.
This analogy is even more befitting when looking at the defence stats, the Waratahs have missed the least number of tackles in the competition, at only 19.1 per game, whereas the Reds are in fourth place at 21.3.
Although, the Reds have a four per cent higher tackling percentage than the Tahs at 90.6, their points differential of -13, compared to the Waratahs +30 shows which of those stats are most telling.
Conversely, the Reds carry the second most metres per game in the comp, but are sitting eighth for carries, showing their post contact metres are massive.
Similarly, they are first for line breaks, and this speaks to their offload numbers, which they are also leading the comp for.
These are in stark contrast to the Waratahs who sit eleventh for carry metres, seventh for carries, and ninth for line breaks.
These are what the raw numbers are telling us, now let’s look at what the game footage says.
First, we look at the Reds’ attack structure.
What is important to note here, is the Crusaders’ defensive structure in their 22m.
They, like the Waratahs are heavily focused on the two-man tackle to affect a dominant hit.
This defensive shape turns consecutive defenders’ shoulders inwards, creating a cross section between the two tacklers, leaving the outside zones exposed.
This ‘blind spot’ which is created by focusing on a dominant hit is what Jeffery Toomaga-Allen exposed when he tips to Joe Brial in jersey No.20.
Brial slots straight through the line because of two distinct reasons, first, is because the defenders are sucked inwards.
Secondly, it’s because the outside man, which also happens to be wearing the no.20 jersey for the Crusaders, doesn’t turn inwards with them.
This is a break in connection, which in turn requires the condensation and reaction of players around the two principle would-be tacklers, a connection which is difficult to perfect.
This second clip from the Reds shows what consecutive phases of the Reds layered, and connected attack does to defences.
The Reds run the pattern so consistently that eventually the Crusaders start turning in from the outside in, and that is when the Reds pull the trigger to go wide, going out the back instead of going flat at the line.
In this instance, Taha Kemara is sucked in the most, while Crusaders’ captain David Havili tries to hold and swim out simultaneously but is too slow on the drift.
Reds’ winger Lachie Anderson finds himself in plenty of space as a result.
This accordion effect which the Reds had on the Saders’ defence is what the Waratahs must avoid.
Conversely, the Waratahs can use their powerful two-man defence system to stem and interrupt the Reds’ flowing attack, and this has two distinct parts.
The important difference to note here between the Waratahs defence and the Crusaders defence is the spacing and gaze of the Tah defenders.
The Waratahs players are tighter, and they are looking to plug the whole left on either side of the two principle defenders.
There are moments later in the clip where the Waratahs get loose after four phases, and that is where they must work harder, or the Reds will punish them.
Their tightness and physicality in defence is part one, part two comes down to their ability to turn over the Reds’ ball at the breakdown.
Part one is no good without part two, and part two can’t happen without part one.
McKellar will also know the Reds are the side which concede the second most turnovers in the competition, and he must instruct his forwards to attack the breakdown.
Similarly, he must have the Max Jorgensens, Andrew Kellaways, and Triston Reillys of his team to pounce on the counterattacking opportunities presented by the Reds’ high number of turnovers.
This analysis is not to say the Reds will run riot over the Waratahs, or that the New South Welshmen will batter the Queenslanders into submission, rather, it’s saying that each side as a distinctive style.
And it will be the execution, patience, and trust in their style which will prove victorious.
However, the Tahs can’t rely solely on their defence though, because the Reds will score points.
Meanwhile, the Reds can’t afford to be as wasteful with possession because between the Tahs’ scrum dominance, and defensive pressure, they will look to win the territory battle.
Whether you’re a red-blooded Queenslander, or a true blue New South Welshmen, or simply a Super Rugby Pacific fan, this contest will deliver as one of Australia’s greatest rivalries and national derbies.
John Fergusonhttps://https://ift.tt/d5E7ljx dazzle vs crash and bash as Kiss and McKellar face off in clash of Wallabies candidates
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