When Putin announced the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it was decided by UEFA that Russia would be banned permanently, and the ban would not be lifted until the end of the invasion.
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And so far, Putin clearly doesn’t care. Having been disqualified from all international competitions, Russia have to concentrate in few friendlies to keep the national team afloat.
But the recent spat between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House, plus Trump’s open admiration of Putin’s Russia to a point he is willing to achieve peace by sacrificing Ukraine and turning against allies, pose major challenges ahead.
That can also be extended to the football field, where FIFA President Gianni Infantino has reportedly welcomed Trump’s attempt for peace with Putin as an opportunity to lift the sanctions against Russia’s footballing participation.
UEFA has remained committed to the codes of European Union and NATO, firmly stands against any attempt to reintegrate Russia to the structure until the Russian Army completely withdraw from Ukraine.
This is further reiterated by other European members like England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and those previously suffered under Russian and Soviet colonial rule in Central and Eastern Europe, who promised to play no match against Russian teams until Russia leave Ukraine.
This risks creating a dangerous loophole: in case FIFA is likely to end sanctions, UEFA’s refusal to end sanctions will be seen by Russia as signs that Europe will never accept playing Russia, and that means, the Russians may soon turn to Asia, if possible, joining the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
Aleksei Miranchuk of Russia (Photo by Anatoliy Medved/BSR Agency/Getty Images)
Football is deeply political in the Soviet Union and even persisted in post-Soviet sphere after 1991. So Russia’s bid to join the AFC isn’t new. It first began to tout it after the suspension related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but shelved it when it feared opposition from pro-Ukraine AFC members like Japan, South Korea and Australia.
But given current circumstances, it may change. Overall, it was Russian Football Union (RFU) President and Putin’s ally, Alexander Dyukov, who stated that the next possible cycle for Russian football would be around 2027 or 2028, probably setting a deadline for Russia’s UEFA gamble.
Yet the possibility of Russia joining AFC isn’t the only concern. In case Russia leaves UEFA, another country will surely suffer from the worst of it: Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan were formerly an AFC member that turned UEFA since 2002, and the football leadership of this Central Asian state has protested any attempt to return to Asia, citing Asian football inferiority as a reason, although Kazakhstan have proven largely unable to become competitive in a sport that’s not No.1 in the country.
Yet, by the end of 2024, Kazakhstan’s membership is now hung in balance, amidst accusations of sportswashing and authoritarianism, something the Kazakhs are aware and deeply frightened, especially since Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine.
That’s because how detached Kazakhstan is: despite joining UEFA, it is ruled ineligible to enter EU and NATO due to its autocratic structure. Under the rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev and his protégé Kassym Jomart-Tokayev, Kazakhstan has become deeply embedded to its authoritarian code, a brazen contradiction from Europe’s embracement to democratic values and a source for growing criticism of Kazakhstan’s UEFA membership, which should have been pointed out given its post-Soviet feature.
This lack of Western support is omnipresent as Kazakhstan could not call for American or European help the same way Ukraine enjoyed. But that’s not all: Kazakhstan have a cursed geography, bordering Russia and China, which used to be imperial powers with chauvinistic dreams; as well as close to Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan – all have developed varied alliances with Russia and China to uphold the autocratic rule.
In case Russia decide to sever all links to Europe and enter the AFC, Russia will have reasons to employ their same justification of “special military operation” to reassert its imperialist zeal; given Kazakhstan’s large Russian minority in the north, it can be expected.
No surprise why Kazakhstan have sent contradictory signals since 2022, vowing to fight to stay in UEFA while quietly increasing cooperation with the Asian members. Kazakhstan have broadcasted Asian competitions like AFC Asian Cup and have played friendlies with Uzbekistan, the UAE and even recently with North Korea.
The AFC isn’t UEFA. Unlike UEFA, which abides to democratic ideals and supports Ukraine from the beginning, the AFC isn’t. Pro-Russian parties remain dominant. Although Japan, South Korea and Australia led the efforts to prevent Russia from joining, their sentiment is only shared by a very few members like Taiwan, Singapore or Syria (following the rebels’ blitz in December 2024).
The others are either autocratic regimes or sympathetic to Russia, such as China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, North Korea, India and Qatar; they are not likely to oppose Russia’s bid to switch confederation if they find it necessary.
After the events in the White House, they will be more likely to twist their causes to even more sympathetic to Russia’s actions, ignoring the fact that millions of Ukrainians have suffered under Russian barbarity or how former Iron Curtain and post-Soviet nations endured Soviet rule.
Having seen how Americans elected Donald Trump and his pro-Russian pivot, this will represent a major test for the pro-Ukraine group like Japan, South Korea and Australia inside the AFC. As the minority inside a confederation filled with nations sympathetic to Moscow, perhaps they need to navigate this complex network.
Remaining steadfast in opposing Russia’s bid to enter AFC is a must do job, but they should also begin to be flexible in face of Russia’s potential secession. In particular, they should expect the possibility of Kazakhstan ending their UEFA affiliation out of fear of being isolated and abandoned.
Kazakhstan, for its authoritarian sins, are not imperialist like Russia, so it’s better for Japan, South Korea and Australia to enable their reintegration. At the same time, they also need to coordinate with UEFA to handle the futures of Russia and Kazakhstan; and if Kazakhstan can’t stay in UEFA, the AFC needs to welcome the country with open arms.
In the new Trump era, where the United States have become more aligned to Putin’s ambitions, stopping Russia has become an urgent job. It’s a very hard time, but it’s also up for the democratic bloc of AFC to do it now, or never.
El Futbolerohttps://https://ift.tt/iWc1wg4 Trump’s pro-Putin pivot, will the AFC face Russian loophole dilemma?
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