The countdown is on for the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season – and with it, comes previews and predictions.
New Zealand has been dominant across the 30 years and many forms of Super Rugby – winning 20 titles, 12 of which by the Crusaders alone – but change is inevitable and in the case of the Christchurch side, 2024 finally brought their seven-year dominance of the competition to an end.
The Blues might now be the new champions on the block – but with a massive change in Australia as five teams have been squeezed into four, plus a constantly improving Fijian Drua, the stage is set for all comers to offer up a harder challenge to the five Kiwi franchises.
So, where do we predict the five sides will finish at the end come the end of May?
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND – JUNE 22: The Blues celebrate after winning the Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Blues
The Auckland-based franchise is the team to beat in 2025, with their ruthless attack seeing them score the most points (488), score the most tries (87), achieve the most number of carries and carry metres – and win the highest percentage of tackles and lineouts in 2024.
Winning with such a strong attack also came hand-in-hand with having the best defence in the competition, only conceding 233 points across the entire season – nearly fifty points clear of the next-best defensive side.
This is a side functioning at a high level of intensity – not bad for Vern Cotter to land a title in his first year in charge of the side. With 13 All Blacks in addition to Samoan international Jordan Lay, the side has an abundance of experience to call upon – not to mention established stalwarts like Zarn Sullivan, Ricky Riccitelli and PJ Schleck.
That isn’t to say that the side lacks weaknesses – with critical positions like the centres and hooker light on depth if the likes of Rieko Ioane and Kurt Eklund both go down, respectively.
Also, performing at such a high intensity means that teams are naturally going to target them, and now they have the egg basket in their corner – with the Hurricanes and Crusaders managing to pull wins over the side last year. Whether they can follow in the Crusaders’ footsteps of multiple titles is another question, but going on such a run is more the exception than the norm in professional sport.
Season run:
Chiefs (H), Highlanders (A), Hurricanes (A), Brumbies (H), Chiefs (A), Crusaders (H), Bye, Hurricanes (H), Moana Pasifika (H), Crusaders (A), Reds (A), Force (H), Drua (A), Moana Pasifika (A), Bye, Waratahs (H)
Despite a few back-to-back tough fixtures, the Blues’ run of matches gives them ample opportunity to maintain momentum – and it primes a loaded squad to get on a roll. A top-of-the-ladder finish is likely.
Prediction: 1st
Daniel Rona of the Chiefs celebrates after scoring a try with Damian McKenzie during the Super Rugby Pacific Semi Final. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Chiefs
Is it a case of always the bridesmaid, never the bride for a third time running? Clayton McMillan might be the most statistically successful coach in the Chiefs’ history, but that first title in 12 years still eludes his legacy. Make no mistake though, his side is still an imposing outfit.
His Chiefs side can score – with the second-highest number of points (486) scored in 2024, in addition to the third-highest number of tries (76) and the equal-highest number of clean breaks (125). The lineout and scrum also ranking highly, and their ability and talent will likely see them snag a finals spot in 2025.
Similar to the Blues, the Chiefs have 13 All Blacks to call upon – but even better, they boast international-level options in nearly every position. Yet, the side finished fourth in 2024 – with a nine-point gap between them and the third-placed Brumbies – picking up five losses in the regular season.
The reality was that, throughout 2024, the side was frequently exposed by the likes of higher performing sides like the Hurricanes and Blues, with even teams like the Rebels able to push them all the way. If an opposition figured out their game plan and executed it effectively, the Chiefs struggled to find answers.
With closer competition expected in 2025, some of the close wins they snagged last year – such as over the Crusaders and Waratahs – might be harder to come by. Then again, given when knockout footy rolled around the team produced their best performances, just making finals might be all they need.
Season run:
Blues (A), Crusaders (H), Brumbies (H), Drua (A), Blues (H), Moana Pasifika (A), Bye, Reds (H), Waratahs (A), Highlanders (H), Force (H), Hurricanes (A), Crusaders (A), Bye, Moana Pasifika (H), Highlanders (A)
The Chiefs have a great squad – but the draw, particularly at the start, is a harsh one. They will need to capitalise in the middle of the season and will target the Australian matches. This schedule does allow an opportunity to build momentum, and winning more than half their matches is very possible. Finishing fifth or higher is likely.
Prediction: 5th
Ethan Blackadder. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Crusaders
Rob Penney’s men have points to prove in 2025. The less said about 2024, the better, with the side’s attacking flair all but collapsing – frequently coming in the middle to bottom of all metrics for the last season.
A horrific injury run, plus a reset under a new coach was always going to be tough – and while they were a chance of finals, it was clear the side needed to cut their losses in 2024. When they did get on form, they could still show their fans the team of old – including an out-of-nowhere win over the Blues last season.
The 2025 season will see plenty of changes, with David Havili taking on captaincy duties from Scott Barrett. The team boasts a large contingent of 15 All Blacks, with lots of young blood like Noah Hotham and Fletcher Newell among the ranks. Wisely, the side has followed the Highlanders’ example from last year and also brought overseas talent in key areas, with Wales’ Johnny McNicholl and 64-capped Wallaby James O’Connor adding needed experience in the back three and halves, respectively.
Penney cannot afford to have a repeat of 2024 – and given the run his side has, a repeat wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility – with less finals placings on offer, it will still be a challenging year.
Head Coach Rob Penney. (Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Season run:
Hurricanes (H), Chiefs (A), Bye, Reds (H), Force (H), Blues (A), Moana Pasifika (H), Drua (A), Hurricanes (A), Blues (H), Highlanders (A), Bye, Chiefs (H), Waratahs (A), Highlanders (H), Brumbies (A)
Despite the fact there are opportunities to get on a roll, the Crusaders will face trips to several of the toughest places to pull an away win. Momentum will be hard to gather – and with fewer finals spots up for grabs, they will likely finish in a similar place to last year, just missing finals.
Prediction: 7th
Highlanders:
The Highlanders are an absolute wildcard in 2025. They boast one of the youngest sides in the whole competition, with the least experience, caps and depth – yet they have one of the best coaches in the competition’s history in Jamie Joseph.
The 2024 season was a big surprise, a sixth-placed finish coming off the back of several solid periods during the season where the side executed brilliant, well-orchestrated wins. Last-gasp wins over the Crusaders, Waratahs and Force also combined with putting sides like Moana Pasifika and the Drua away convincingly.
Tanielu Tele’a of the Highlanders celebrates scoring a try against the NSW Waratahs. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
However, when the team wasn’t in the game, they fell off badly, with the likes of the Reds holding them scoreless and multiple big losses to the Hurricanes. Scoring only 38 tries (9th in the competition) and making 64 breaks (11th), the side had a predictable attack, meaning it wouldn’t take long for stronger teams to shut them down.
The team made great decisions with their recruitment in 2024, such as key inclusions like Welsh international Rhys Patchell – it showed a few smart choices of players in key positions was all this side as a whole needed to move up the ladder.
However, 2025 sees the side have even less experience – while they boast an abundance of Baby Blacks (which bodes well for the club’s future), the side currently boasts two All Blacks and two Maori All Blacks as their international contingent. They will heavily lean on those experienced heads, Joseph’s coaching structures and a few club legends like centurion Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Joseph is a brilliant coach, but a young side, no matter the clear talent, needs time to grow.
Season run:
Waratahs (A), Blues (H), Moana Pasifika (A), Bye, Hurricanes (H), Reds (H), Brumbies (A), Force (A), Drua (H), Chiefs (A), Crusaders (H), Moana Pasifika (H), Bye, Hurricanes (A), Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H)
It’s a toss-up between the Highlanders and the Force for who finishes at the bottom of the ladder with Moana Pasifika – and given they have the more settled squad, the Highlanders talent alone should still ask questions, despite their youth. A good start to the season is critical, as the matches only get harder from there.
Prediction: 9th
Brett Cameron. (Photo by Michael Bradley/Getty Images)
Hurricanes:
Lastly, the side that topped the ladder of the regular season and one of the strongest depth-wise, the Hurricanes finished the 2024 season with the second-best defence and third-best attack overall.
All numbers pointed to a Hurricanes-Blues final last year until the Chiefs got other ideas. With eleven players with international experience, Clark Laidlaw’s side benefits from a strong team underneath the stars who can slot in and do just as good a job.
Shutting down the attack has proven the only way to stop the Hurricanes so far, with the Brumbies in Canberra and the Blues in Auckland the only sides able to do it – until the Chiefs produced their best performance of the year in the semi-final to hand the Canes their only loss at home – but it was the one that mattered.
Laidlaw’s side needs to find a solution to crack those tough sides who can effectively shut down the attack: because 2024 showed they have the cattle to win a title. The Blues turned to sheer physicality in those tough games – whether the Wellington side can do the same – or come up with a new solution – is another question entirely.
Season run:
Crusaders (A), Drua (H), Blues (H), Moana Pasifika (A), Highlanders (A), Bye, Waratahs (H), Blues (A), Crusaders (H), Force (A), Brumbies (A), Chiefs (H), Bye, Highlanders (H), Reds (A), Moana Pasifika (H)
While several tough stretches loom, this is a favourable draw for the Hurricanes – with ample opportunity to get on a roll and build momentum. Even better, with more games at home against the stronger sides of the competition, home advantage gives them an ideal chance to push for the top of the ladder.
Prediction: 2nd
Nick Wasilievhttps://https://ift.tt/iGKY2B7 Rugby Pacific 2025 Previews: New Zealand – will the Kiwi dominance be challenged?
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