The Wrap: Predictability collides with unpredictability in Rugby Championship opening round


https://ift.tt/jZvSo0p RoarAugust 11, 2024 at 11:05PMhttps://cdn4.theroar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Len-Ikitau-11-755x515.jpg

Linking in to Joe Schmidt and Allan Alaalatoa’s press conference on Saturday evening, I was surprised to hear Schmidt open with, “The way we built to a 19-3 lead was pretty dominant, and I was really happy with the way we were dictating the game at that stage.”

Had the match I’d watched earlier in the afternoon – in classic Pamela Barnes-Ewing from Dallas-style – all been a dream? Had the Wallabies not been overwhelmed 33-7 by the Springboks, after all?

Unfortunately they had, and it was Rugby Australia’s communications pigeon, embedding the wrong video/audio file, who was later revealed as the culprit.

So, what did Schmidt really have to say? Firstly, about the run of play: “They don’t give you a lot of breathing space. It was hard to find oxygen in that first half, particularly when we conceded eight or nine penalties and they didn’t get penalised to the same extent.”

“It just made it very, very tough work getting out of our half and then when we did, we kicked the ball away a couple of times without kicking it accurately. We didn’t get into the aerial contest and then obviously the contest at the breakdown, we just weren’t effective enough there.”

Tate McDermott and Len Ikitau look dejected after the loss to South Africa. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

Then, with a view to next week and the possibility of changes being made: “We have got a much younger side than the South Africans.

“We’ve got a lot less caps, we’ve got a lot less experience and, therefore, my belief if we chop and change too much then it’s very hard to grow the cohesion because when you go out in a game like that you are very interdependent and you’re going to have to make sure that everyone knows their role [and] has been built ready to deliver their role.”

Schmidt’s account is reflective of what was an entirely predictable outcome. The current two-time world champion, coming off a highly competitive series against Ireland, versus the world’s ninth-ranked side at the beginning of a new cycle, months away from finding a solid footing, yet to determine which of its players are up to Test football and which are not.

Australia’s effort couldn’t be faulted. There was early defensive pressure and a willingness to try to force the Springboks into error. That effort was maintained throughout an improved third quarter, and when the visitors were reduced to 13 men in the final ten minutes, a consolation try finally resulted.

But the fact that Tom Lynagh’s conversion from wide out was celebrated as one of the highlights of the day really spoke volumes for how comprehensively the Wallabies were outplayed.

Dylan Pietsch of the Wallabies is tackled during The Rugby Championship match between Australia Wallabies and South Africa Springboks at Suncorp Stadium on August 10, 2024 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)

Dylan Pietsch of the Wallabies is tackled. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)

With the Boks dominating at set-piece, the Wallabies inevitably conceded penalties, which only resulted in more waves of pressure being exerted. Those were converted to points at regular intervals; the first try coming from a clever lineout variation that had Rassie Erasmus’ fingerprints all over it.

It was only Willie le Roux’s largesse – inexplicably failing to execute a routine draw and pass – that prevented the score from blowing out further. Nevertheless, the points came; Pieter-Steph du Toit strolling through a gap in the defence for a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter.

South Africa were by no means perfect, lacking finesse and fluidity at the base of the ruck. But even then, fractured, messy ball suited Kurt-Lee Arendse to a tee; the elusive winger skipping through some disappointing defence for a 21-0 half-time lead.

With the Wallabies barely mounting a meaningful attack – and Jake Gordon disappointingly dinking away possession when they did get an opportunity – everyone knew the contest was dead. Extending matters to 33-0 before Hunter Paisami’s late consolation was neither here nor there.

It’s hard to know where to find for positives for the Wallabies. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Nick Frost and Rob Valetini all had their moments, and the Springbok lineout maul – for the most part – was well covered.

But there was little continuity, cohesion or spark in attack, mostly a result of there being no front-foot platform to work off. This really was, to return to the earlier theme, the true reflection of what happens when the world No.1 puts the hammer down on the world No.9.

Because there is light at the end of every tunnel, there will be players and combinations better for the experience. But that’s a longer-term proposition. It’s hard to envisage a different result in store in Perth next weekend.

What also hurts is that the Wallabies weren’t able to deliver more for the sell-out crowd; a result of Queensland-based South Africans turning out in force, and the Olympics-influenced scheduling of an afternoon fixture.

Kurt-Lee Arendse of the Springboks celebrates scoring a try with teammates. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)

To the first point, there is a view that the heavy weighting of Springbok fans (and All Blacks fans for Bledisloe Cup fixtures) is reflective of the fragile state of the game in Australia. If you like, a natural drop-off of home support, fans weary of having their hopes dashed, year after year.

I’m inclined to view it more as an opportunity. Those green-clad supporters might be hardcore Bok fans today, but they are immigrants with kids in Australian schools, doing Australian things, their families in the process of becoming Australian.

Perhaps within this generation, certainly within the next, these kids will be Wallabies and Wallaroos players and supporters, and will be underpinning grassroots rugby around the country.

That all supposes these families are motivated to stay attached to rugby. That administrators deliver them a game that is in good shape. Something worth devoting their time and heart to.

To that end, it is crucial that rugby’s leaders connect and stay connected with this base, talking in language they relate to and understand.

Answering questions last week about the prospect for more ‘family-friendly’ afternoon kick-offs, Rugby Australia CEO Phil Waugh said: “I can’t say right now we’re pivoting to afternoon games in rugby but I think we’ve got really good relationships with the broadcasters and the broader stakeholders across the game.

“I don’t have a firm commitment one way or another, other than to say we’re considering all stakeholders and getting the balance right to appease as many as possible.”

It’s a problematic situation for Waugh; one without an easy solution. But if the broadcasters really do have the game by the balls I don’t think there’s any harm in telling fans just that – and saving talk of “pivoting” and “broader stakeholders” for the boardroom.

Typically, whenever the All Blacks lose a match they’re expected to win, the post-mortem focus is inwards. ‘What did we get wrong – with tactics, execution and selection?’

And while it is true that the All Blacks got plenty wrong, the real story of their 38-30 loss to the Pumas is what the visitors got right.

Joel Sclavi of Argentina celebrates the win during the International Test match between New Zealand All Blacks and Argentina at Sky Stadium on August 10, 2024 in Wellington, New Zealand. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Joel Sclavi of Argentina celebrates the win over New Zealand. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

To turn around a 44-6 loss in the World Cup semi-final, to this win, is the very definition of unpredictable. Note that this was under the same referee as well – Angus Gardner – who had punished their ill-discipline mercilessly in Paris.

This match started off the same way, six penalties blown against the visitors in the first 11 minutes. But the Pumas kept their composure, kept digging into the breakdown contest, kept tackling, never stopped chancing their arm, and gradually took the ascendancy.

This was a mature display; energy aplenty from their famed loose forward trio, and masterful control and direction from Santiago Carreras at fly-half through to Juan Cruz Mallia at fullback.

There was flair aplenty, too – Mateo Carreras unstoppable on his curving run to score, while Franco Molina’s lineout try at the start of the second half was wonderfully conceived and powerfully executed.

The All Blacks were at their best in the third quarter when they simplified their structure and played more directly; giving them some workable front-foot ball. There were encouraging signs in this phase too from Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett, recognising the need to play for territory.

But there was too little of it. The longer the game went, the more things turned to custard. Errors crept in, some of them major ones; McKenzie and Ardie Savea losing 50 metres in two consecutive wayward passes, which led directly to Agustin Creevy’s try.

Bench hooker Asafo Aumua’s contribution was also unfortunate; missing two vital throws that stymied any chance of a late All Blacks revival.

After the recent England series I posed a question around what would define Scott Robertson’s All Blacks compared to Ian Foster’s team. The answer is, so far, nothing. They still have a propensity to mess around behind the advantage line. They lack power and pace out wide. The loose forward trio isn’t functioning effectively as a unit.

All Black Head Coach Scott Robertson talks to the press following the International Test Match between New Zealand All Blacks and England at Forsyth Barr Stadium on July 06, 2024 in Dunedin, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison - RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson talks to the press. (Photo by Joe Allison – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

In other words, they look just the same, only a bit worse.

It’s early days for Razor of course, and if we’re looking for positives, Sam Darry looks the business at this level. But again, none of this discussion should diminish what Argentina brought to the match and – rightfully – took away from it.

It wasn’t all bad news for Australia over the weekend with news.com.au, in their haste to herald success at the Olympics, reporting that golfer “Minjee Lee has advanced to the fourth round of the women’s event.” Indeed she did, just like all the other 60 competitors.

And what about team chief Anna Meares, who could have taken the easy path and light-heartedly joined in the pile-on following the performance of Rachael Gunn, aka ‘Raygun’, in the breakdancing competition, but who instead chose to defend the indefensible?

Who would have thought that borrowing John Howard’s Aussie tracksuit and performing the ‘kangaroo hop’ and ‘the sprinkler’ wouldn’t be enough to cut it for an Olympic medal?

“All my moves are original,” said Gunn, after her performance. Well, that’s about as convincing as Meares labelling critics of her routine as misogynists.

England’s Steve Harmison never bowled a wide as off-target as that one. As any triathlete who has taken a dip in the Seine knows, effluent is effluent and it knows no gender boundaries.

The person I really feel for is Razor, knowing that instead of enduring the agony of defeat at the hands of the Pumas, he could have been in Paris dancing his way to an Olympic medal.

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Geoff Parkeshttps://https://ift.tt/63yjreC Wrap: Predictability collides with unpredictability in Rugby Championship opening round

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