The second ever Olympics mixed medley relay will be taking place at 5:58am on Sunday morning (AEST).
The stroke order for medley relays is the same as the same gender medley: Backstroke, Breaststroke, Butterfly, and Freestyle. Mixed medleys must consist of two men and two women, but the choice of order (and therefore stroke) is left to the team.
“The feeling of everybody, swimmers and coaches and Technical Committee, is that this is a very interesting event with a lot of tactics involved,” then FINA executive director Cornel Marculescu said in 2013.
Three years ago, I wrote the same article which predicted USA to win. However, later that day USA announced a non-optimal finals lineup by having Lydia Jacoby as the only female Breastroke leg in the field. This changed the prediction to favour Great Britian to win, with China and Australia medalling, which is exactly how it played out.
I have crunched the numbers to work out the optimal team for each country in the final. I will then examine how the race could play out if everyone performs to the highest level they have shown at this Olympics so far.
The eight Finalists are as follows:
Lane 1: France
Lane 2: Great Britain
Lane 3: China
Lane 4: United States
Lane 5: Australia
Lane 6: Netherlands
Lane 7: Canada
Lane 8: Japan
To work out the optimal team I have compared the best time an individual in each of those countries across all strokes and all genders has produced so far at the Olympics. I’ve examined all relay splits and individual events. I have compared the 8 quickest flat start times vs the 8 quickest relay split times for each stroke and gender to factor in that a relay start is quicker. For example, for Men’s 100m freestyle, the average of the 8 quickest relay split times is 0.49 seconds quicker than the average of the 8 quickest flat start times.
For example, Kyle Chalmers has swum the 100m Freestyle 6 times at this Olympics. His performances converted to projected relay split times are as follows:
Heat Relay Split: 47.44
Final Relay Split: 46.59
Heat Freestyle: 48.07 – 0.49 = 47.58
Semi-final Freestyle: 47.58 – 0.49 = 47.09
Final Freestyle: 47.48 – 0.49 = 46.99
Mixed Medley Relay Heats: 47.07
Therefore, the split time we will use to project this race is 46.59.
Australia’s best split times for each stroke and each gender are as follows:
| Nation | Australia |
| Male Back | Isaac Cooper |
| Time | 54.21 |
| Female Back | Kaylee McKeown |
| Time | 57.33 |
| Diff | -3.12 |
| Male Breast | Joshua Yong |
| Time | 59.32 |
| Female Breast | Jenna Strauch |
| Time | 67.21 |
| Diff | -7.89 |
| Male Fly | Matthew Temple |
| Time | 50.76 |
| Female Fly | Emma McKeon |
| Time | 55.86 |
| Diff | -5.1 |
| Male Free | Kyle Chalmers |
| Time | 46.59 |
| Female Free | Mollie O’Callaghan |
| Time | 51.48 |
| Diff | -4.89 |
Firstly, to work out the optimal team you must subtract the female time from the male time for each stroke.
The two strokes with the lowest time difference between genders will mean the female swimmer should be chosen for the relay. The two strokes with the highest difference between genders will mean the male swimmer should be chosen for the relay. With gaps of 7.89 seconds and 5.1 seconds respectively, Joshua Yong (Breast) and Matthew Temple (Butterfly) form Australia’s male contingent, while Kaylee McKeown (gap of 3.12) and Mollie O’Callaghan (gap of 4.89) will perform Backstroke and Freestyle respectively.
I have applied this rationale for all other nations, meaning the ultimate mixed relay team for each nation (in order of stroke) is as follows:
| Lane | Nation | Back | Breast | Fly | Free |
| 1 | France | Emma Terebo | Antoine Viquerat | Maxime Grousset | Marie Wattel |
| 2 | Great Britain | Oliver Morgan | Adam Peaty | Keanna Macinnes | Anna Hopkin |
| 3 | China | Xu Jiayu | Qin Haiyang | Zhang Yufei | Yang Junxuan |
| 4 | United States | Ryan Murphy | Nic Fink | Gretchen Walsh | Torri Huske |
| 5 | Australia | Kaylee McKeown | Joshua Yong | Matthew Temple | Mollie O’Callaghan |
| 6 | Netherlands | Kira Toussaint | Caspar Corbeau | Nyls Korstanje | Marrit Steenbergen |
| 7 | Canada | Kylie Masse | Apollo Hess | Josh Liendo | Maggie Mac Neil |
| 8 | Japan | Riku Matsuyama | Taku Taniguchi | Mizuki Hirai | Rikako Ikee |
The makeup of each team is as follows:
Male Back, Male Breast, Female Fly, Female Free = Great Britain, China, United States, Japan
Female Back, Male Breast, Male Fly, Female Free = France, Australia, Netherlands, Canada
How the Race Plays Out
100m
Xu Jiayu (China) hands off in front, just in front of Ryan Murphy (USA). Kaylee McKeown (Australia) finishes strongly to move Australia into 5th.
| Rank | Nation | Time | Margin |
| 1 | China | 52.02 | |
| 2 | United States | 52.39 | 0.37 |
| 3 | Great Britain | 52.84 | 0.82 |
| 4 | Japan | 54.71 | 2.69 |
| 5 | Australia | 57.33 | 5.31 |
| 6 | Canada | 58.29 | 6.27 |
| 7 | France | 59.1 | 7.08 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 59.84 | 7.82 |
200m
China (Qin Haiyang) continues to lead, just in front of USA (Nic Fink) and Great Britain (Adam Peaty). Australia (Joshua Yong) still in 5th and the best placed of teams who haven’t started with two males. Netherlands move from last to 6th after a strong breastroke leg.
| Rank | Nation | Time | Margin |
| 1 | China | 110.63 | |
| 2 | United States | 111.12 | 0.49 |
| 3 | Great Britain | 111.38 | 0.75 |
| 4 | Japan | 114.4 | 3.77 |
| 5 | Australia | 116.65 | 6.02 |
| 6 | Netherlands | 118.56 | 8.12 |
| 7 | Canada | 118.75 | 8.38 |
| 8 | France | 119.01 | 7.93 |
300m
World record holder Gretchen Walsh has moved United States into the lead over China. Matthew Temple has dragged Australia up into the medals. Can Mollie O’Callaghan run down USA or China?
| Rank | Nation | Time | Margin |
| 1 | United States | 166.39 | |
| 2 | China | 166.67 | 0.28 |
| 3 | Australia | 167.41 | 1.02 |
| 4 | Netherlands | 169.02 | 2.63 |
| 5 | Canada | 169.04 | 2.65 |
| 6 | Great Britain | 169.17 | 2.78 |
| 7 | France | 169.29 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Japan | 170.92 | 4.53 |
Finish
Torri Huske extends the US’s lead over China to give them their first mixed medley relay Olympic gold medal. Redemption for Tokyo. China 2nd, Australia 3rd. A disappointing 6th for Great Britain in aiming to defend their title, with all of their Tokyo quartet in decline.
| Rank | Nation | Time | Margin |
| 1 | United States | 217.92 | |
| 2 | China | 218.39 | 0.47 |
| 3 | Australia | 218.89 | 0.97 |
| 4 | Netherlands | 221.09 | 3.17 |
| 5 | Canada | 221.59 | 3.67 |
| 6 | Great Britain | 221.72 | 3.8 |
| 7 | France | 221.91 | 3.99 |
| 8 | Japan | 224.13 | 6.21 |
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