A Saturday afternoon fixture at a packed-out Suncorp Stadium against South Africa may seem like a dream come true for Aussie rugby fans but this Test could prove to be anything but.
In years gone by, a ‘fast-dry track’ in the arvo sun would’ve been any Australian’s idea of great weather to shepherd a ‘large and unfit’ Springboks-pack around the field and run up the score, but the Springboks of 2024 are a different beast.
Expansive rugby is starting to become part of their DNA and it’s not replacing any other aspects, it’s merely an augmentation new attack coach Tony Brown, a former All Black flyhalf, has instilled in the side.
Put plainly, this Springbok side has all the hallmarks of those before it; ferocious physicality, unrelenting defence and an unstoppable set piece, it’s just Brown has given it a wide-ranging attack as well.
The Wallabies are just starting to find some form upfront and at set-piece time, but these new expansive capabilities of the Boks have turned the dynamic of Saturday’s game on its head.
The threats to the Wallabies are now through the middle as well as out wide with the new Bok attack structure looking to put pressure on Australia’s squishy edges, which could result in an ugly scoreline.
It makes the Wallabies’ selections in the back three as well as the defensive organiser, traditionally the no.13, crucial in their bid for success.
In the two-game series against Ireland in July the Springboks showed a new desire to play wide, to shift the ball into to space and to attack that space.
The new tactic most often appeared whenever a contestable kick had been taken or regathered by the Boks.
As soon as they won the ball, they shifted it to the opposite edge from where the kick was received as quick as possible.
It worked like clockwork and yet they caught the Irish out on several occasions, often making 20-30m at a time.
The Wallabies back three have hardly been flawless positionally or when executing their skills and the defensive organiser, who usually is the No.13 has been chopped and changed, making this new Bok attack dangerous for the Aussies.
This is what it looks like.
Expansive play 1 Test 1 Ire v SA
It’s amazing that with five swift passes the Springboks have gone from defusing a high ball just inside their half to attacking the Irish 22m, all in just one phase.
The issue at hand is not the attack structure itself, rather it’s the speed and efficiency at which the Springboks change the point of attack.
What’s even more concerning is the attack could have been faster had some of the passes in the clip been in front of the receiving player.
The speed of the transition isolates defenders, forcing them to make difficult defensive reads and leaves them isolated in one-on-one tackles.
Winger James Lowe makes a poor read on Jesse Kriel, leaving Pieter Steph du Toit to burst down the wing to eventually offload to hot-stepper Cheslin Kolbe.
This is where selections become crucial for the Wallabies.
Selecting a back-three with good aerial skills and defensive capabilities makes the selection difficult for Schmidt.
For Ireland, rookie fullback Jamie Osborne was resolute under a continuous bombarded throughout the two-Test series.
His bravery in the air and exceptional positioning prevented certain disaster from ensuing and derailing Ireland’s entire series hopes.
His wingers Lowe and Calvin Nash were equally as impressive but when they got things wrong the Springboks made the Irish pay.
In these next three clips, the variation, precision, and speed at which the Springboks attack the space in and around the Irish defensive line is staggering.
The variation on attacking kicks shows how crucial positioning will be for the Wallabies at the weekend.
Expansive kick 1 Test 1 Ire v SA
In this first clip the Irish box kick from around the 27m mark, Nash chases valiantly but doesn’t get up in the air early enough to catch it.
The loose ball from his tap back in just a few seconds and with a couple quick passes sees Willie Le Roux plug Ireland back almost into their own 22m.
With this play, the Springboks have forced Ireland backwards 5m from where the play started.
Expansive kick 2 Test 1 Ire v SA
In this clip Faf de Klerk box kicks 30 metres from his line.
Kurt-Lee Arrendse’s chase is excellent, and Nash is slow to react.
The speed of the ruck and vision from Le Roux to pick out and kick to the space Lowe left from covering at fullback is pinpoint perfect, and Kolbe’s chase and catch is also mightily impressive.
In this instance, the Springboks gained 30m with just one ruck and two kicks.
Finally, this third clip shows a little dink from de Klerk.
Expansive kick 3 Test 2 Ire v SA
The kick comes after a first phase strike play with captain Siya Kolisi crash balling from a five-man lineout in centre field.
De Klerk chips quickly spotting space for Kolbe to chase into and had halfback Connor Murray not been back-tracking then Kolbe would have collected the ball and been one-on-one with Osborne.
The variation in the Springboks’ arsenal means the Wallabies’ positioning must be perfect if they hope to defuse it.
In the first two examples above they could easily have been passes which allowed the Springboks to attack that space had it not been for Ireland’s rush-defence.
Noting this is important as the Wallabies have a much more passive connected line-speed defence and so expect the ball to go through the hands, much like the very first clip in this article.
In both instances, the Wallabies back three and No.13 will be crucial to the integrity of the team’s defence.
The likely back-three of Filipo Daugunu, Tom Wright, and Andrew Kellaway can deal with this expansive Boks attack but perhaps a slight tweak is needed.
Kellaway is the most well-rounded back-three player in the current Wallabies squad, and he has the best aerial skills.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Shifting him to fullback and playing Wright on the wing ensures the attacking threat of Wright is retained whilst mitigating some defensive and aerial frailties.
The introduction of a new member wouldn’t necessarily bolster any aspect to the extent that it would compensate for the loss of cohesion.
At outside centre Josh Flook had steady performances throughout July, but Len Ikitau’s ability to organise a defence could be crucial when the Boks attack in the 15m channels.
Ikitau has played the Springboks on several occasions, beaten them more often than not and he has never once looked out of his depth, he’s the steadying hand should Schmidt choose to use him.
The back-three as well as the No.13 will be crucial in nullifying the Springboks newfound love for attacking rugby.
Claiming the highballs, winning the contestables, and being patient in defence are non-negotiables if the Wallabies want to shut down this new-look Bok attack.
The Wallabies have lots of counterattacking threats across the park and must be clinical when the opportunities present themselves.
Whiz-kid Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is getting his starting debut in the No.10 jersey on Saturday afternoon and the 22-year-old will look to run the Wallabies around and test their defence.
An entertaining game of rugby awaits, the Wallabies have the ingredients to make it a contest, but the performance of the back-three and No.13 will be material in Saturday’s result.
John Fergusonhttps://https://ift.tt/mZoGITX Black who’s added sharp edge to Boks – and how the Wallabies must deal with it
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